Today's Taste: Best College Baseball Plays (4/21/23)

An absolutely brutal beat from Arkansas cost us a Thursday night sweep. Leaving 11 runners on base against the worst pitching staff in the world will definitely cause a lot of heartbreak. Those are the perils of betting this chaotic sport. Today is a new day, one that features a ton of games on the slate. I’m only giving out a one-game taster, so you have to check out Breaking Bet at 1pm ET to find out my whole board.

 

#4 Vanderbilt Commodores (-160) @ Tennessee Volunteers (+130)

 

Quite frankly, the two paths these teams have traveled thus far is the opposite of what I expected in the preseason. The 29-8 Vandy Boys have been mowing down the competition with a 5-0 mark in SEC play (13-2 overall). They have won a lot of games in different fashions, which is something I expected from the Vols. Tennessee looks lost this year, only winning one series in SEC play. My Vols have been in a free fall over the last few weeks, losing seven of their last nine conference games. Will they finally right the ship against their in-state rival?

 

I’m not surprised UT’s offense has struggled this season after being gutted in the 2022 MLB draft where they lost almost every starter from their historic team a season ago. This is not the team many people expected to see. In addition to the offense, their superstar pitching rotation has been mostly dreadful. On Friday, they won’t be throwing top prospect Chase Dollander. Instead, they will go with hybrid righty Andrew Lindsey, a guy who has been used in two-four inning situations. Vandy doesn’t boast a top offense, but they are pretty strong in timely situations. Led by CF Enrique Bradfield Jr., this generation’s Carl Crawford, the Commodores are great at making opposing pitchers make mistakes. Bradfield is 26-30 in the stolen bases department this season, and 119-129 in his career. If they let this guy on a few times today, that could be the difference. 

 

Carter Holton has the ball for the ‘Dores this evening. Other than a rough outing last weekend against South Carolina, where he was battling tightness in his side, he’s been outstanding in 2023. Prior to last weekend’s appearance, the stout lefty had shoved three quality starts in his last four tries. Facing a Tennessee lineup that only mustered seven runs in three games against Arkansas last weekend, the advantage is definitely in favor of Holton. Aside from walking batters, the only way he can really get hurt is if he lets behemoth Blake Burke start hitting light tower shots. Burke’s 13 homers leads this offense, so he is the one guy to pitch carefully to. Furthermore, in the event of tight game late, Tennessee does still have a strong bullpen, but Vandy features a capable one themselves. With one of the top closers in the nation this year, Nick Maldonado, I definitely feel more comfortable with him on the mound than anybody the Vols would throw.

Tennessee is in must-win mode for the rest of the season if they want to even make the tournament. However, nothing they’ve done has given me any confidence to bet on them. I still maintain Vandy is overrated, even though they have proved me wrong, but still they have found ways to win ball games. Tennessee has found ways to lose. Maybe this is the time UT turns the ship around, but Vanderbilt has the clear edge tonight. It might ultimately be a race to five runs. The ‘Dores should take game one.

 

I gave this out at -155 last night before it ballooned to -180 with some buy back ultimately coming on Tennessee. I would play it out to -175.

 

Pick: Vandy ML -160