MLB Betting 5/9/23 - HR Predictor

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 12-29 +$453.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via FanDuelSportsbook*

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Sean Murphy +390 (0.2u)

We smashed a +350 on Gleyber Torres last night, and return for some more HR props on a big Tuesday night slate. Murphy has been the best offensive catcher in baseball this season, and it's crazy to think he was added into this Braves lineup. He ranks first overall in xwOBA this season -- among all MLB players -- and top-ten in ISO as well. He has power to both sides of the plate, and has a great match-up against Nick Pivetta who has allowed seven homeruns this season. Pivetta has used his heater a lot to both lefties and righties this season, while Murphy has some of the best power splits on the Braves in the split. Overall, Atlanta has one of the highest team totals on the board tonight, and I do expect them to send a few balls out of the yard. Murphy and Matt Olson are my favorite candidates. 

Wilmer Flores +540 (0.2u)

Everyone knows that Patrick Corbin allows a ton of power, and it's becoming tradition to take a HR prop against him every fifth day. We get some amazing odds on the Giants players tonight due to the game being played in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. Flores has looked the best batting from the right side for this team, and matches up very well with Corbin's pitch mix. Corbin throws his sinker over 40% of the time -- while Flore owns a huge .357 ISO against the pitch. I love these odds -- and you can also look at JD Davis for +360 who has four career HR's off Corbin during his time with the Mets. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)