Today's Taste - Best MLB PrizePicks Player Props (5/9/23)

Monday was certainly a day that we got back on track. Stacking up a couple of stud aces is almost always a sure thing. This Tuesday, I may change the approach just a little bit.

 

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Shane Bieber OVER/UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts

 

A couple years ago, there were two bets that were nearly automatic. Both of them were because of Shane Bieber. Over strikeouts, and first five under. Neither of those nearly ever missed in the first half of 2021, until Bieber suffered a shoulder strain that turned him into a different pitcher. After missing nearly the entire second half of that year, he started to somewhat regain that preinjury form in 2022. Flirting with that dominance that won him a Cy Young award, it looked like our guy was back to business. Unfortunately, a couple of arms injuries over the last few years have been behind his steadily declining strikeout rates, along with losing velo on his fastball.

 

I’m not trying to knock Shane Buieber because I actually do like him. Luckily the guy never relied on a high 90’s heater to bail him out. Being a finesse pitcher has allowed the Guardians’ ace to continue pitching extremely well. Last year, he logged 200 innings with 198 K’s and held a 2.88 ERA. To start 2023 off, he has a solid 2.96 ERA. The main area he has been affected is in the strikeout department. Bieber is a guy who was averaging 12.5 K/9 from 2019-2021. He only had an 8.9 K/9 last season, and a 5.9 to start this year. The Biebs can definitely still pitch, but after witnessing him log five straight outings with exactly four K’s, it’s hard seeing him climb over six punchouts tonight. He’s only done that once this year, which was against the A’s.

 

While Shane Daddy Jr. does have a butter matchup against the Tigers, a lineup who has tallied the sixth-most K’s (322), I believe going over 6.5 punchies is too high of a number. I would imagine he stays well under 6.5 strikeouts tonight.

 

 

Pick: Bieber UNDER 6.5 K’s

 

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Shohei Ohtani OVER/UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts

 

Much has been made about the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes this year. The thought behind it was the Angels would ship him off at some point, but could have done it within the first couple months of the new campaign depending on the team status. With the Angels out to one of their best starts in years, it may be put on hold for the time being. Ohtani will see the defending World Champion Astros on Tuesday.

 

For however long Ohtani stays an Angel, we’ll keep looking at his props. After going nuclear his last few starts with a combined 32 strikeouts in 18 innings, it seems like one of those times to press his K prop totals. Ohtani is one of only a few pitchers that can go on absolute heater and rack up tons of strikeouts in a short period of time. Perfect example was June-July when he went crazy and totaled six straight outings of double digit punchouts. His A++ stuff will certainly help with that. Now, he faces a familiar foe that he’s had a lot of luck against.

 

 Shohei saw Houston five times in 2022. He has at least eight K’s in three of them, and seven in another. The Astros are night and day from the championship team they put together a season ago. Mostly because they are missing their catalyst and leader, Jose Altuve. The system will probably change once he returns to the team, but until that point there are great chances to keep this thing moving. While it’s true that only six teams have struck out less than Houston, this offense has been knocked around by high powered righty arms. Guys like Dylan Cease, Joe Ryan, Mitch Keller, Zack Wheeler etc. had success in the strikeout department against this team. 7.5 is a lot of but, a number Ohtani can certainly accomplish.

 

Pick: Ohtani OVER 7.5 K’s

 

 

 

PrizePicks Player Prop Parlay +300

 

Bieber UNDER 6.5 K’s

Ohtani OVER 7.5 K’s