MLB Betting 5/11/23 - HR Predictor

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 12-31 +$413.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via FanDuelSportsbook*

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Vinnie Pasquantino +600

This game feautures the most sketchy weather of the day, but should it play I think there is a ton of of value on a number of the HR props in this game. We have two pitchers toeing the rubber who have allowed a ton of power this season, starting with Mike Clevinger of the White Sox. Sunshine has fallen off a cliff this season, allowing a .281 ISO to left-handed hitters along with 50% fly-balls and 40% hard-hits. The Pasquatch has been coming on strong for the Royals lately, and this someone I want to continue to buy moving forward. Over the last 7 days, he ranks top-20 among qualified hitters in both hard-hit rate and fly-ball rate. Clevinger throws a ton of fastballs, while Pasquantino is one of the best fastball hitters on this team. If this game plays, I'll be betting both Vinnie and MJ Melendez at +500. 

Brandon Lowe +330

As for the night slate, I'm interested in some of the Rays guys who continue to mash right-handed pitching. As a team they rank first-overall in both ISO and wRC+ against RHP this season. We know that Lowe has big power, while German is prone to giving up HR's. Lowe matches up very well against German's pitch mix, and I think both he and Luke Raley have value tonight. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)