MLB Betting 5/12/23 - HR Predictor
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MLB Betting 5/12/23 - HR Predictor

Ben Hossler
05-12-2023

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 12-33 +$373.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via FanDuelSportsbook*


Willson Contreras +350 (0.2u)

We get a classic turn back the clock night in MLB on Friday, with the corpse of Adam Wainwright squaring off with the ghost of James Paxton in Boston. I truly can't believe we are getting this pitching match-up in 2023, but here we are. We haven't seen Paxton start a game since 2021, and the recent results in the minor leagues don't inspire any confidence. He has six appearances at Triple A this season, resulting in an ERA north of 6.00. St. Louis will pack righty bats in against him tonight, including Contreras who is heating up at the plate. He has above-average power to left-handed pitching and I have 0 confidence in Paxton here. It's going to be very warm in Boston tonight, with winds blowing out, and I think there is value on both sides of the game when it comes to HR props tonight. 

Josh Jung +370 (0.2u)

Texas also finds themselves in a strong spot tonight against Ken Waldichuk. It's become common knowledge to attack the Oakland A's pitching staff with HR props, because their bullpen is so bad that even if they don't get there in their first few AB's they are never truly dead until the game ends. Waldichuk has allowed 11 homeruns to right-handed hitters this season, and will see eight righties in the Rangers lineup tonihgt. Jung has been heating back up at the plate, and matches up well against his pitchmix. Waldichuk throws his heater over 60% of the time, while Jung has the best power splits on the team against fastballs. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)


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