MLB Betting 5/16/23 - HR Predictor

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 13-38 +$343.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via FanDuelSportsbook*

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Rafael Devers +350

We are awarded fantastic hitting weather again in Fenway, and I'm expecting pleny of offense on Tuesday night. I respect Luis Castillo as a pitcher, but weather wins out for me more often than not and Castillo has allowed a homerun in each of his last three starts. Devers has the most power on the team vs right-handed pitching -- and matches up very well against Castillo's fastball-heavy pitch mix. Devers also has better batting splits at home than on the road for his career, so I like to target him in Fenway when the wind is blowing out. 

Jose Ramirez +360

Ramirez has just four homeruns this season, but it seems like the Guardians offense is finally waking up (thanks to Josh Naylor) after a big series against the Angels over the weekend. Lance Lynn has been a HR target for us all season, and Ramirez owns four longalls against him in his career. Ramirez notoriously crushes fastballs -- sporting a team-high .418 ISO against the pitch. Given that he's such a good fastball hitter, it makes sense why he's had success against Lynn who throws his heater 50% of the time. Overall, I wouldn't blame you for targeting Naylor here, but I'll go with Ramirez to have a breakout game at the plate. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)