Today's Taste - Best MLB PrizePicks Player Props (5/27/23)

Right now is full steam ahead on the College Baseball front, but we have a little time to sneak in an MLB PrizePick parleezy. As usual, I look to target the power arms in my quest to nail down a three unit, two leg play. Let’s roll.

 

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Zack Wheeler OVER/UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts

 

I’ve featured “Baby Back” or “Throw it back” Zack several times by now. There’s a thought around the league that he’s not a top tier pitcher anymore. Maybe that’s what I think other people think, but anyway, Wheeler is still a great arm. He may not be elite like he was for the brief twinkling of a star, but I think putting him as a top 10 starting pitcher in the MLB isn’t far-fetched. In something of a down year, he’s logged five quality starts in 10 tries. The reason I really wanted to highlight him is because it’s a special occasion!

 

There are certain trends that bettors like to look for or follow. Sometimes they are difficult to spot as they start to pick up steam. Some are well kept secrets. Wheeler against the Braves might classify as just that. Since he came to the Phillies, there has arguably been no better pitcher against Atlanta than the Phillies’ right-hander. In the 10 starts as a Phillie against ATL, Wheeler has logged eight quality starts, and at least seven punchies eight times. 

 

When you factor in those numbers with the fact that the Bravos are middle of the pack in the MLB with strikeouts. A little bizarre considering they have been one of the most strikeout prone teams in the majors for the last couple seasons.The K numbers aren’t eye-popping for Zack right now, but they’re still strong (64 K’s in 57 innings). Wheeler should be in line for another strong start this afternoon, possibly a ladder play.

 

 

 

Pick: Wheeler OVER 6.5 K’s

 

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Corbin Burnes OVER/UNDER 7 Strikeouts

 

One of the biggest shocks of the 2023 season has been the rapid decline of Corbin Burnes. A perennial Cy Young favorite for the last couple years, Burnes has had a dramatic demise to start the year. A lot has been made of the failed contract negotiations stemming from the winter, but whatever the case is, this guy is not the same pitcher right now. I’m a huge fan of Corb Daddy, but something is going on that is affecting his play.

 

Pitching wise, he’s been a lot better recently, logging four quality starts out of his last five tries. A lot of it may just be overcoming a horrendous start. However, the one thing that he is not succeeding at is the thing he became famous for, the strikeouts. Burnes only has 51 punchouts in 56.2 innings, a far cry from the guy who notched 234 K’s in 2021 and 243 in 2022. At the end of the day, Burnes is just getting started, and he will probably figure it all out soon. In the meantime, he sees a San Francisco team that is one of the worst strikeout lineups in baseball. SF punches out the third-most times (503) in the league, which has been a huge advantage for a lot of K prop overs this year.

 

Unfortunately, I don’t believe I can ride the over here. I may end up regretting it, but Burnes has only hit seven K’s in three of his 10 outings this season. Also, he’s been a much different pitcher at home this season. In Milwaukee, he’s pitched to a 4.78 ERA, .260 OBA, and 25 K’s in 26.1 innings. At home, his K numbers have been five, seven, five, five, three. Not to mention, he only logged five K’s in his first start against SF. I love Corbin, but I need to see it before I get back on the train.

 

Pick: Burnes UNDER 7 K’s

 

 

 

PrizePicks Player Prop Parlay +300

Wheeler OVER 6.5 K’s

Burnes UNDER 7 K’s