MLB Betting 5/27/23 - HR Predictor

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 15-42 +$415.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via FanDuelSportsbook*

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Ryan Mountcastle +320 (0.2u)

Mountcastle has been a staple bet for me this season, and I'm willing to go back to the well with him pretty much anytime he faces a left-handed pitcher. Andrew Heaney is the exact type of pitcher I like to target with HR props as well, he's always allowed above-average power to righties and is sitting at a .200 ISO in the split this season. Mountcastle has been one of the most underrated hitters in baseball this season. He ranks first on the Orioles in ISO and fly-ball rate against lefties this season, and third in hard-hit rate. He also destroys fastballs, which is great news considering that Heaney relies on his heater 60% of the time. He has only seen Heaney a handful of times, but has two homeruns in four at-bats against him. 

Bryce Harper +390 (0.2u)

I love both Harper and Kyle Schwarber for HR's today, but I'll side with Bryce at better odds. Charlie Morton has been very inconsistent this season, and is allowing a .200 ISO to left-handed hitters. We know that Harper has monster power, and he matches up well with Morton's pitch mix. He throws his curveball almost 50% of the time, making it his most-used pitch. Both Harper and Schwarber have huge power splits against the pitch -- and both have homers off Morton in their careers. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)