Today's Taste - Best MLB PrizePicks Player Props (5/28/23)

JEEEEEEZZZZZ. Spot on with Zack Wheeler, but Corbin Burnes picks the first time in like six starts to ramp up the K’s. Been like that lately. Looking to at least give one winner this week that would redeem my past sins of my plays. Let’s get one.

 

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Dylan Cease OVER/UNDER 6 Strikeouts

 

Dylan Cease has pitched extremely well as of late. The strikeouts are definitely way down from the past couple of seasons. I have had a hard time figuring out why. One theory I had was because he only uses three pitches mainly, and the teams have a lot of data on the 2022 best pitch in baseball, his wipeout slider. Combine that with him not being able to consistently locate it on a put away count, that might make sense. Then again, I thought maybe he isn’t trying to strike everybody out like the past. This season, at least lately, he is not overthrowing like he has been. Instead he’s simply pitching to contact, and it’s worked wonders.

 

Cease Daddy has had NINE straight starts with six K’s or less. That’s actually comical… and the longest streak since 2020. We want Cease to be the premier strikeout guy that he is and has been. For right now though, I don’t believe he is focused on doing so. Because he’s had three straight quality starts, the formula might continue as is. 

 

He’s facing a Tigers’ lineup he has historically notched a lot of K’s against. And this year, that team is actually top 10 in fewest punchouts. Detroit has typically deployed a very lefty-heavy lineup against Cease, which really hasn’t mattered both historically or this season. Based on matchup and history, Cease is definitely capable of a high strikeout game. However, I just don’t see it happening today, even if he is due. The number at the books is set at 6.5, so if we go off that, I think he stays under today.

 

 

 

Pick: Cease Under 6 K’s

 

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Spencer Strider OVER/UNDER 9 Strikeouts

 

I’m sick of the immensely talented Spencer Strider. For my own selfish reason, I really need to see him fall off a cliff. The selfish reasons being I bet Hunter Greene to lead the MLB in K’s at 60/1. Strider is hitting his…stride to start 2023. It’s not much of a surprise considering how well he did as a rookie last season. With Max Fried out indefinitely, the Braves turned to this dude with gigantic quads to be the guy, and he hasn’t failed them.

 

Strider has had nine K’s in all but two of his 10 starts this year, where he logged seven and eight respectfully. We could try and break down what makes him so good. But that fact is he has a rocket fastball that hits triple digits, with a whirlwind slider, and a show-me changeup. Because of his arsenal, he has been able to accomplish a lot of strikeouts in five or six innings. Today, he gets a Phillies team that is top 10 in the league in K’s (468). They have four players who punched out at least 50 times, and five who have been sat down 40 times. With all this swing and miss prowess, there is a good chance SS can drop another nine K’s on this lineup.

 

The books are setting this number at 8.5, as usual. It’s high, but it’s been standard most of the year. I’ve rarely seen a pitcher who has had this many K props set at 8.5, but Strider is definitely deserving of it. It’s a good play to take him at the over today.

 

Pick: Strider 9+ K’s

 

 

 

PrizePicks Player Prop Parlay +300

Cease Under 6 K’s

Strider 9+ K’s