MLB Betting 6/6/23 - HR Predictor

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 15-50 +$255.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via FanDuelSportsbook*

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Mookie Betts +300 (0.2u)

Happy Dinger Tuesday to those who celebrate! I'm starting off my picks with Mookie Betts, who has been on a tear for the Dodgers this season and is firmly in the mix for the NL MVP Award. Betts has two multi-HR games over his last four contests -- and is among the league leaders in hard-hit rate over the last 7 days. He also has a 55% fly-ball rate over that 7 game span, which is exactly what I want to target with these HR picks. LA has one of the best match-ups on tonight's slate against Luke Weaver, who has allowed 11 homers this season. Weaver has been bad all around, but has profiled more reverse-splitsy giving up a .403 wOBA and .287 ISO to right-handed hitters. He's also allowed one more homerun to righties than lefties. Betts matches up well with his pitch mix, and getting him at 3/1 feels like a value compared to someone like Max Muncy is who is only +250. 

Jack Suwinski +400 (0.2u)

Suwinski was a popular HR pick on Monday night, and I'm going to go back to the well tonight against James Kaprielian. Kaprielian has always struggled with left-handed hitters during his time in the big leagues, but it's been especially bad this season with a .348 ISO and 43% hard-hit rate in the split. Suwinski has been fantastic for the Pirates in 2023, he leads the team in ISO against RHP, while also posting a 40% hard-contact rate and a team-high 58% fly-ball rate. He crushes fastballs, which Kaprielian throws almost 50% of the time to both sides of the plate. I think there is value on multiple Pirates to hit longballs tonight. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)