MLB Betting 6/8/23 - HR Predictor

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 16-52 +$303.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via FanDuelSportsbook*

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Rowdy Tellez +420 (0.2u)

We FINALLY hit a HR prop yesterday, I think it had been almost a week since the last one as the young phenom Elly De La Cruz led us to the promised land with a +440 nuke off of Noah Syndergaard. Now that we hit one, it's time to start up a streak and anyone that reads my content knows I love to bet on our guy Rowdy Tellez. Rowdy absolutely mashes right-handed pitching, and while I think Kyle Bradish is a solid real-life pitcher -- this is a great spot for Tellez. Bradish is good at keeping the ball on the ground, but Tellez has one of the better fly-ball rates on the Brewers and he matches up very well against his pitch mix. You'll see a lot of fastball / slider from Bradish, two pitches that Tellez owns over a .340 ISO against. I also noted last week that Tellez has been very good at home during his tenure with the Brewers. Last season, 22 of his 35 homeruns came at home. 

Mike Trout (with 30% profit boost +372, 0.2u)

I used my PItching Ninja profit boost on Mike Trout to hit a HR tonight, against Drew Smyly. Smyly has had a pretty good season for the Cubs thus far, but he will always be what he is. He allows a ton of fly-balls, and on the days where they aren't leaving the park he's probably going to be pretty good. Given that fly-ball lean, he is always a good target to pick off HR's against and I'll go with Trout tonight. We know he has fantastic numbers against left-handed hitters, but he also owns a .214 ISO against sinkers which is Smyly's most-used pitch. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)