MLB Betting 6/14/23 - HR Predictor

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 17-52 +$375.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via FanDuelSportsbook*

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Gunnar Henderson +480 (0.2 units)

Gunnar Henderson has struggled at times this season for the Orioles, but it's clear that he is hitting his stride. He's been absolutely torching baseballs over the last week -- homering in three straight games and four of his last five. Despite his recent hot-streak, we can still get him at nearly 5/1 to homer tonight in a great match-up against Jose Berrios. Berrios has rounded into form for the Blue Jays, but is still more than capable of allowing a homerun or two. He's only allowed eight homeruns this season, which isn't a crazy high number, but he's been much worse against left-handed hitters than righties in terms of ISO allowed. Since the start of 2022, he's allowing a near .180 ISO to lefties compared to a sub-.100 number against same-handed hitters. Of the eight homers he's given up this season, four have come from each side of the plate -- but I'll continue looking to pick-off left-handed hitters when I target him. He's relied heavily on his slurve and change-up this season, which is good news for Henderson. He hasn't seen many slurves, but he has some of the best power numbers on the Orioles against change-ups including a 53% hard-hit rate. 

He clearly has big power numbers against righties, and he's obviously seeing the ball well right now. He ranks top-20 in all of baseball in barrel rate over the last seven days, as well as fourth-overall in ISO. It's tough to homer four games in a row, but with someone hitting the ball this hard I will ride it until the wheels fall off and I like the price + match-up again on Wednesday evening. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)