MLB Betting 6/21/23 - HR Predictor

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 18-55 +$409.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via FanDuelSportsbook*

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Luis Robert +420 (0.2u)

We cashed out an Elly De La Cruz dong yesterday at +470 and I'm looking to make it two in a row tonight with Luis Robert against Martin Perez. It hasn't been the season White Sox fans wanted from their team, but one thing that remains certain is that Luis Robert crushes baseballs and has been heating up as of late. He homered in the first game of the series against the Rangers earlier this week, and this is an even better match-up for him tonight. Martin Perez is a fine real-life starter, but he is much worse against right-handed hitters and we know that Robert is one of the best hitters in baseball against left-handed pitching. If we isolate just this season, Robert ranks third in ISO vs LHP, and first in wOBA. I don't think we should be getting 4/1 for him to homer against any lefty -- especially Perez. He matches up well against his pitch mix, with above-average power numbers against all three of his most-used pitches. To top it off, he also ranks fourth among all players in barrel-rate over the last seven days, highlighting that he's been seeing the ball well. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)