MLB Betting 6/27/23 - HR Predictor

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 19-57 +$439.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via FanDuelSportsbook*

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Kyle Schwarber +280 (0.5u)

It's Dinger Tuesday on FanDuel and I'm looking to go back-to-back after hitting the +350 Adolis Garcia prop on Monday night. Typically, you'll never see me on any HR props lower than +350 but I simply can't ignore this spot for Schwarber tonight. Philly matches up with Jameson Taillon, who looks worse on the surface than he actually is -- but has allowed eight homeruns to left-handed hitters this season. The splits are clear, he is significantly worse against lefties than righties and is allowed a .321 ISO and 58% hard-hit rate against LHH this season. We know that Schwarber has massive power, and he's been on fire with seven of his 20 homeruns coming in the month of June. He matches up well against Taillon as well, he has multiple HR's off him in his career and is a great fastball hitter -- which is Taillon's most-used pitch to lefties. Overall, I'm upping this from a o.2u to a 0.5u play given the odds, but this is one of the better spots I feel that we've taken this season. 

Given that it's Dinger Tuesday, I'll be sprinkling on a few other guys and Shohei Ohtani at +290 seems like the best bet to me. He has been ripping the cover off the ball, ranking top-five in barrel rate over the last seven days and he hit his league-leading 26th HR last night. He always seems to hit well when he pitches, as well. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)