MLB Betting 7/3/23 - HR Predictor

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 20-59 +$459.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via FanDuelSportsbook*

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Corey Seager +390 (0.2u)

Seager and the Rangers come into today narrow favorites over the Houston Astros, and it's noteworthy that they carry a near five run team total against Cristian Javier. Javier was very good for the Astros in 2022, pitching to a 2.52 ERA, but things have fallen off quickly for him this season. He's been really struggling as of late, and if isolating the last 30 days he owns the highest SIERA (6.53) and lowest CSW% (20.1%) of any pitcher throwing on Monday. He's still been managing hard-contact, but being a fly-ball lean pitcher is going to lead to some potential HR's allowed. He's given up 10 earned runs in his last two starts, including two long balls against the Cardinals last week. Seager matches up extremely well with him, and he's also in the midst of a career season for the Rangers. He leads the team in ISO vs RHP at .277 and is second in hard-contact rate at 61%. He has above-average power splits against both of Javier's most-used pitches -- fastball / slider -- and has seen him well in the past. I think Texas is in a good offensive spot against a pitcher that clearly isn't right at the moment, and I'm willing to bet Seager at just under 4/1. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)