MLB Betting 7/6/23 - HR Predictor

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 20-62 +$394.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via FanDuelSportsbook*

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Christian Walker +420 (0.2u)

Walker and the Diamondbacks find themselves in a strong offensive spot on Thursday, sporting a 5.5 run team total against Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco has fallen off hard this season for the Mets, he's allowed at least one HR in all but one start this season including his last eight starts overall and is one of my favorite pitchers to target with HR props at this point in the season. Despite being right-handed, Carrasco has actually been worse against righties than lefties this season allowing 9 homeruns to righties compared to just three vs left-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Walker has always been better against same-handed pitchers in his career with 80 of his 106 career homeruns coming vs RHP. Carrasco throws mainly sliders and fastballs to righties, while Walker owns above-average power splits against both pitches. Getting him at 4/1 feels like great value tonight, especially when we factor in that he's been locked in at the plate -- homering in two straight games. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)