NFL Week 1 - Danny's Best Bets

Opening day Sunday is almost upon us, and I’m ready for a great year starting with my NFL Week 1 – Danny’s Best Bets.

I will be providing five Best Bets each week, varying from moneyline plays, spreads, over/unders and a few prop bets.

And if you follow us on our Discord, I went 2-for-3 in the Thursday night game between Detroit and Kansas City (The Lions won, 21-20). I won on the under 53 and David Montgomery’s over 64.5 rushing/receiving yards. My loss was Skyy Moore’s over 3.5 receptions. All three were from DraftKings, but don’t forget to visit our sponsors and check out their sign-up bonuses to start the NFL season.

Well enough with the introductions, let’s get into my NFL Week 1 – Danny’s Best Bets.

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Cleveland +2.5 on BetMGM & Amari Cooper over 54.5 receiving yards -115 on DraftKings

I believe the odds makers have the spread wrong for this game.

The Browns are riding a five-game winning streak vs. the Bengals in Cleveland, and Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow is only 1-4 vs. Browns, as well.

If the Browns have the lead late, the Bengals have struggled to come from behind as they’ve only scored last in 3 of their last 11 away games.

Plus, the Browns ended a 17-game non-winning streak in opening games last season with their 26-24 victory against Carolina.

Now for the second bet – Cooper is a great value from my DFS spreadsheet this week as he is the fifth best point scorer at WR and the sixth best value among the WRs. He averaged 14.9 yards a catch last year and if he holds that trend he would only need 4 catches to surpass the 54.5 yards.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh +2.5 on FanDuel

This is expected to be the battle of defenses as the total for the game is 41.5.

However, the 49ers’ last two visits to Pittsburgh, the Steelers have cruised to big victories (2015 – Steelers won, 43-18; and 2007 – Steelers won, 37-16).

Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh passing offense seemed to be clicking on all cylinders in the preseason, and the 49ers’ weakness was their 21st ranked pass defense in 2022.

Plus, the 49ers averaged 5.6 less points on the road last year compared to their home contests.

Las Vegas at Denver

Jakobi Meyers over 3.5 receptions +124 on DraftKings

Meyers has proven to be one of better slot receivers in the NFL, and he has juicy matchup vs. the Broncos.

Denver has given up 10 or more receptions to the slot in their last five games in 2022, and with the Broncos defense concentrating on Davante Adams, it will open up chances for Meyers.

Meyers also reunited with Vegas head coach Josh McDaniels, who was the offensive coordinator in New England when Meyers broke out. McDaniels will be creative to take advantage for Meyers’ talents.

Miami at LA Chargers

Under 51 on BetMGM

This game is the darling of the weekend.

Two up-and-coming teams with explosive offenses and questionable defenses.

But I’m going to be contrarian as most believe this is going to be a high scoring game, but here’s the rub – in their last 10 matchups, only one game has exceeded 51 total points.

The Dolphins have only averaged 18.3 points in their last six visits out West to face the Chargers. If the Dolphins continue this scoring trend, the Chargers would have to score 6-plus more points than their implied team total of 27.

- Follow me on X (formerly Twitter) @fantasyfbguru2

Also check out our PrizePicks Predictor!