NFL Week 1 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

We are ONE sleep away from the first Sunday of the 2023 NFL Season!

Tonight, I’ll lay my head down to rest anticipating dreams of one-handed catches, touchdown celebrations, game winning field goals, and that sweet, sweet Red Zone Clock.  Most importantly, I’ll be envisioning sweeping the Top 5!

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

2022 Season Overall: 52-47-5 (53.1%)

Last year was a blast and I truly appreciate all of you that followed along and won (a little) money with me.

I’ve been in training camp for months getting ready for this season and I can not WAIT for our first full slate of NFL football tomorrow.

Last season I treaded water through the first several weeks of the year before going on a 2+ month winning spree to finish above .500.  This year, we start on top and stay that way.  Let’s get to my Top 5 game bets for Week 1!

 

Week 1

5. Jacksonville Jaguars AT Indianapolis Colts (UNDER 46 -110) – 1 PM – FOX

Always remember, boring bets cash the same as exciting ones. 

There is not one person in your life who hasn’t at least muttered to you under their breath, “Man, I love the Jags this year.”  I get it!  They’re very likeable, in an awful division, and have a young star QB with a Super Bowl winning coach.  But we’re talking a divisional matchup, on the road, against a complete unknown in Coach Shane Steichen and QB Anthony Richardson.

These AFC South games always go down to the wire but with the heavy line movement on the Colts (now +4.5 from +5.5) I decided to go with the under.

Jags stud offensive tackle Cam Robinson is out for the first four weeks while the Colts return former Pro Bowler Shaq Leonard to their defense.  I expect Indy to play tough in their new system against a familiar foe and keep the Jaguars offense at bay.  On the other side, I’m frankly not an Anthony Richardson guy… YET.  I think he is going to struggle mightily in the early going and figure it out as the season moves along.  At his worst, he is woefully inaccurate, and I predict a brutally ugly box score from Richardson on Sunday.

I see Jacksonville being fully content going into Indy, slowing the game down, and keeping things in front of them en route to a low scoring win to get their season off right.

 

4. Carolina Panthers AT Atlanta Falcons (-3.5 -112) – 1 PM – FOX

This game can be broken down a million ways, but I want to start you off with a stat.

#1 overall pick QB’s are 1-13 ATS in their first starts since 2003 (1 win being David Carr, remember that poor schlub?).  Let that marinate…

I like Bryce Young a whole lot and I do think he will be an electric NFL QB, but it isn’t now, and it isn’t against a very intriguing Falcons team. 

The NFC South is wildly unpredictable as we enter the 2023 season.  The Saints are the favorites with tickets coming in on the Falcons and Bucs (gross) too.  The Panthers however, ain’t it.  Atlanta is going to run the ball.  You know that I know that, and Carolina knows that.  But I’m betting it won’t matter.  Panthers star, and best player, linebacker Brian Burns is holding out and I highly doubt he boards a plane to the Peach state at this point.

I envision Rookie RB Bijan Robinson running wild in his first game along with other exciting skill players like WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts. RB Tyler Allgeier and the never aging Cordarrelle Patterson.  2nd year QB Desmond Ritter will manage Atlanta to comfortable home victory propelling them forward to a possible division title.

 

3. Miami Dolphins AT Los Angeles Chargers (-3 -115) – 4:25 PM – CBS

This game rules.  Two explosive offenses with unlimited speed and skill going toe to toe in the 4 PM slate.

You’ll come to find out that I’m a big ‘one coast team going to the other coast and losing’ guy as we go along here.  (I didn’t put the Commanders on the Top 5 because I couldn’t justify giving 7 points with Sam Howell until I can see it with my own two eyes, but I WILL be betting on Washington nonetheless).

The Chargers brought in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore from Dallas this off-season and he will unlock QB Justin Herbert even more than we’ve already seen.  Moore loves to air it out and Herbert has one of the most prolific right arms in recent memory.  The Dolphins have a lot of stars on both sides, but All World CB Jalen Ramsey is out till the winter and the newly minted 75-million-dollar offensive tackle Terron Armstead won’t play this week either.  These injuries will absolutely matter in a razor thin matchup.

Give me the Chargers to outscore the Phins in Week 1 by 4 or more.

 

2. Dallas Cowboys AT New York Giants (+3.5 -115) – 8:20 PM – NBC

Oh baby do I love a home underdog, in division, of more than 3!

Let’s start with some stats:

• Divisional home underdogs are 7-0 ATS in Week 1 over the past 5 years.
• The Giants were a league best 13-4 ATS last season.  10-2 as an underdog.
• QB Daniel Jones had a TD to INT ratio of 10:3 at home last year.
• The Cowboys are 0-3 in Week 1’s under coach Mike McCarthy

The Giants were a surprise playoff team last season squeaking into the last seed and upsetting the Vikings in the Wild Card round.  The front office is finally in order after years of head scratchers and they’ve put together a solid team on paper.  TE Darren Waller leads the list of newcomers and I see him being a huge contributor right away (pending health).  RB Saquon Barkley enters 2023 after a strange off-season saw him get a raise but without a long-term deal so he will be especially motivated. 

The Cowboys are going to be very good.  The defense, led by LB Micah Parsons, is elite and there are skill players galore.  However, I’d argue the strongest part of their team for years has been the offensive line and they are coming into this season banged up or off holdouts.  I think it will take them a couple weeks to get back to being one of the tops in the league.

I’m not going to ignore Dak Prescott’s record against the Giants in totality, but I will say this isn’t the same New York team he’s beaten on for years.  This game is going to go down to the very last second with a possibility the Giants win outright.

 

1. San Francisco 49ers AT Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5 -110) – 1 PM – FOX

For those of you who followed the Top 5 last season you know exactly where I was going with my top pick.  It’s the Steelers, it was always Mike Tomlin and the Steel City!

There is no better coach ATS than Tomlin.  He’s 64% in his career against the spread including, wait for it… 16-4-3 as a home underdog!  That’s truly insane.  Let’s go even deeper.

I’m not huge on the end of last year impacts the beginning of this one because players, coaches, schemes, etc all change exponentially but it must be mentioned.  The Steelers got healthy to end last year and went on an absolute TEAR.  After starting an abysmal 3-7, Pittsburgh won six of their last seven games.  When QB Kenny Pickett was at the helm they won five in a row and when defensive superstar TJ Watt was in the lineup, they were 8-2.  My point in all of this is they are healthy, sneaky loaded, and an exciting group I can’t wait to bet on.

The Niners are a preseason favorite to win it all and it’s understandable.  They have 2 atrocious teams in their division and made it to within one game of the Super Bowl last season.  However, they are not without their question marks. 

QB Brock Purdy is back, healthy, and was the darling of the league last year.  He simply didn’t lose until his elbow got crunched under Haason Reddick’s arm in the NFC Title game.  Defensively, they just signed the reigning defensive player of the year Nick Bosa to a record-breaking deal two days ago ending his hold out but with zero practice time, I can’t see him playing more than 10-15 snaps.

Add in the ol’ faithful west coast coming east at 1 PM rule with my guy Tomlin and we have the perfect ingredients for the #1 Best Game Bet of Week 1.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X (Twitter)!: @davecostabile