NFL Week 2 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

 

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 1 Record: 1-4 / Overall: 1-4 (20%)

Alright, let’s get this out of the way quick.  It was an awful opening weekend.

Week 1 is a traditionally brutal slate to handicap and that proved to be the case last week.  It was a “public better” fiesta most of Sunday which made my stats and trends moot but the sun came up Monday morning and we begin the climb NOW!

 

Week 2

5. Miami Dolphins AT New England Patriots (+3 -115) – 8:20 PM – NBC

We start our Top 5 in Gillette Stadium under the lights.

Here we have the traditional ‘bet the home dog in division’ play but there is more to it than that.  The Pats enter this week off a tough, grinding loss to the defending NFC champions where they looked very good during most of that game.  The Dolphins have made the world fall in love with them airing it out all over Los Angeles last week.  So why New England?

We know what we’re going to get from the Patriots and Bill Belichick.  They know the opponent incredibly well and are playing at home in what may be a must win early in their season.  Team’s that start 0-2 reach the playoffs only 11% of the time and in this extremely tough division, they will be back on the right track with a win on Sunday night.

Mac Jones and that offense worked the Eagles for most of that game down the middle and seemed to have found something with their two tight end sets and possession receivers.  I think Bill O’Brien has made an immediate impact displaying them as a REAL offense after last season’s debacle of a year on that side.

The Dolphins, man… Tua and Tyreek are unstoppable.  Not just last week but all last year when Tua was at the helm.  However, in this spot, coming back East from LA and then up the coast for another road game against a familiar foe, give me the points and the Patriots.

 

4. Green Bay Packers AT Atlanta Falcons (-1.5 -110) – 1 PM – FOX

It’s extremely early, but the Falcons may be my squad this season.

I expect them to continue to be undervalued because of the lack of star power at QB.  I won’t sit here and try and convince you that Desmond Ritter is a good NFL Quarterback.  He’s most likely the opposite but Arthur Smith is a very good coach in my opinion, and they can run the ball on ANYONE.

Grass is green, water is wet, and the Packers smashed the Bears last week at Soldier Field.  They played well but I’d argue it was more of the Bears ineptitude than anything.  Justin Fields turned it over twice, the defense was a joke, and the Packers capitalized on literally every opportunity.  I could see them coming into this tilt smelling themselves a little bit and expecting to win against an extremely tough nosed Atlanta team.

The Falcons bulldozed the Panthers Sunday (providing us our sole win of Week 1) and have a real shot to win the NFC South.  Starting off 2-0 with two home victories will go a long way in meeting that goal.  Of note as well, Packers all world running back Aaron Jones hasn’t practiced all week and cornerback Quay Walker is trying to make it back from a concussion he sustained last Sunday.

This game opened with Green Bay as a 2-point favorite and has swung an insane 3.5 points.  This is all pro better money cascading down on the Dirty Birds.  I see Atlanta controlling the clock, scoring in the red zone on the backs of their stud running backs and winning this game by a touchdown.

 

3. Seattle Seahawks (+4.5 -110) AT Detroit Lions – 1 PM – FOX

We’re fading the public darling again in the Motor City.

Seattle was AWFUL last week in a home drubbing to the Rams.  Literally nothing went right for the Hawks, and it was truly shocking to watch.  The Lions meanwhile come into this game off a ‘mini bye’ after going into the defending champion’s house and winning.  Sometimes gambling makes you feel appalled all while licking your lips at the disgusting opportunity that lies before you.

Give me Seattle!

Listen, the Lions are no fluke.  Outside of that great victory last week, they also finished the 2022 season on an absolute tear culminating with a beautiful upset against their hated rival Packers to knock them from the playoffs in Week 18.  I love Coach Dan Campbell like everyone else in the country, but this is a full-on ‘Spot Play’ on the other side.

The Seahawks made the playoffs last season, returned most of their skill players and defense while adding exciting young WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.  There is a LOT to like about their roster.  I think they simply got caught in a divisional matchup against a highly motivated Rams team who everyone was counting out.  Pete Carroll is too good a coach to have them lay down like dogs in back-to-back weeks.

If the Lions didn’t have their heads the size of air balloons yet after off-season praise, last week’s upset win has made that balloon about ready to blow.  I think they’re good and could win the NFC North for sure, but this game is not going to be as easy as the public betters are making it feel.  Sharp money is on the Seahawks and so am I.

 

2. Las Vegas Raiders AT Buffalo Bills (-8.5 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

Whoa baby was Josh Allen bad Monday night.

That was a tough game for the “NFL isn’t scripted” fans to watch because it was straight out of a movie.  But when you push the Rodgers injury, the punt return walk off and the Jets winning outright out of your mind, it really came down to one guy.  Josh Allen was atrocious, however the best part for Bills fans is he absolutely knows it.

I expect Allen to be unleashed Sunday afternoon in Buffalo as they run it up on the 1-0 Raiders.  Yes, it’s the west coast team coming East checkmark, but this isn’t even really about that.  It’s about Buffalo and what they need to do to be the team we all think that they are.

Here’s some stats for you.  Josh Allen is 16-1 straight up as a touchdown favorite.  He simply doesn’t squander these opportunities against lesser opponents.  In addition to that, when the Bills win, they blow out teams.  37 of Josh Allen’s 52 career wins are by a TD or more.

The Raiders had a very nice win in Denver last week squeaking out a 1-point victory in Coach Josh McDaniels’ first game in Las Vegas.  However, it did come at a cost as the game’s leading pass catcher Jakobi Meyers suffered a concussion and will not play this weekend.  The depth has always been an issue for the Black and Silver and that will be a major deterrent to them covering this spread.

Run it up Josh!

 

1. Seattle Seahawks AT Detroit Lions (OVER 47.5 -108) – 1 PM – FOX

We are back in D-Town for my #1 play of the weekend.  I LOVE this over so much; I’ve bet it three separate times. 

Let me first take you back to their matchup last season.  The Seahawks won a 48-45 firework show in Detroit.  How about the year before?  The Hawks took that one too 51-29 in Seattle.  That is 93 and 80 points total respectively.  I have more!  Eight of the nine Lions home games last year went over this total of 47.5 for an average of 58 points per game.  These teams simply cannot stop one another, and I fully expect that to be the case Sunday on that fast Ford Field turf.

Detroit and Seattle are both sneaky loaded at the skill spots.  Seattle boasts a wide receiver group that I’d put up against any in the league and the Lions have a diesel offensive line, a great thunder/lightning running back tandem, and Amon-Ra St. Brown who I bet to lead the league in receptions this year.  There are going to be chunk plays left and right and as long as they convert in the redzone I don’t see a scenario where this doesn’t fly over the total.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile