NFL Week 3 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 2 Record: 3-2 / Overall: 4-6 (40%)

We found our footing in Week 2, posting a respectable 3-2 record.  The three wins were a piece of cake while the two losses easily could have swung in our direction. 

The Seahawks (+4.5) and over 47.5 went exactly as I predicted.  A back-and-forth battle with offensive fireworks galore ending with a walk-off Hawks TD in OT to seal it.  The Bills (-8.5) game was over by halftime as they put it on Vegas winning by 4 TD. 

Atlanta (-1.5) was heartbreak city as the Falcons settled for a chip shot field goal with a minute left to win by 1.  Nothing worse than losing a bet by the hook.  In the night game Sunday, the Dolphins gave our Patriots (+3) EVERY opportunity to cover and win outright.  Unfortunately, a New England lateral play deep into the 4th quarter was reviewed and marked just short ensuring Miami’s 7-point victory. 

Gambler’s Note – There is bad weather ALL OVER the East coast this weekend.  Remember this when you are betting these games on Sunday, especially the totals.

 

Week 3

#5. Denver Broncos (+7 -120) AT Miami Dolphins – 1 PM – CBS

I’m back against the Dolphins this week for one sole reason. 

I still feel the same way I did last week about Miami.  They’re very good, especially offensively.  However, seven points is entirely too many to give a team that CAN score and has a great head coach who is desperate to not start off with a dreaded 0-3 record.

If the Dolphins blow out Sean Payton, then I’ll give them a hat tip and be on my way, but I see the Broncos hanging around with them on Sunday.  The Patriots provided a lot of information on how to blanket Miami’s speed.  Their “umbrella” like defensive backfield kept Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in front of them and I expect Payton to engage in a similar style.

Speaking of Waddle, he is questionable for this game coming off a concussion Sunday night and his status bears a lot of consideration.  Denver QB Russell Wilson showed flashes of his prime against Washington last week and I see them putting up around 20 points which will be enough to cover the TD spread.

 

#4. Atlanta Falcons AT Detroit Lions (OVER 46.5 -110) – 1 PM - FOX

Another week, another Lions over at Ford Field.

Nine out of the last ten Lions home matchups have gone over the total with an average of 59 (FIFTY-NINE!) points per game.  When Detroit games kickoff, the defenses fall asleep, and I expect that trend to continue Sunday.

I can already tell that the Falcons are going to be a team I’m on a lot and I certainly thought about putting them in the Top 5.  Unfortunately, they opened at +5.5 and quickly got bet down to +3.5 before settling in at +3 as of this moment.  That’s a bit too tricky of a line for me to go with so I’m taking the over.

The Lions have some injury concerns on the offensive line as well as their top WR Amon-Ra St. Brown.  However, he practiced in full Friday, and I expect him to be out there.  Meanwhile, Atlanta’s run game is elite.  RB Bijan Robinson looks like a Madden player in real life.  His vision and elusive nature are a treat to watch and I think he goes off again in this game.

I expect a back-and-forth tilt that will soar past this over 46.5.

 

#3. Houston Texans (+8 -110) AT Jacksonville Jaguars – 1 PM – CBS

There are two eight-point dogs this weekend (Colts +8 vs. Baltimore) and I will be betting on both.  But, in an effort to not make you all sick, I picked my favorite for the Top 5. 

Let’s start with the Jags.  QB Trevor Lawrence has looked fine so far but certainly not as good as he finished last year.  He comes into this divisional matchup 0-5 against the spread as a home favorite.  He is also 1-3 straight up against the Texans in his career.  Want one more?  The Jags are 0-7 against the spread in their past seven games as home favorites as well.

Listen, I’d be willing to overlook these trends if the Texans were dead dog losers.  But, in my opinion, they aren’t.  Sure, they’ve lost both games this year by double digits, but they have had sprinkles of positivity in each. 

Rookie QB CJ Stroud has now thrown a record 91 times without an INT and ranks 4th in the league with 626 yards through the air through two games.  He has looked like the best rookie thrower so far.  The defense is what has let Houston down this season.  With that said, the Jaguars haven’t exactly blown the doors off on the offensive side of the ball.  They have been a disaster in the red zone, and I don’t think they magically figure it all out this week against a familiar foe.  Give me the 8 points and the Texans.

 

#2. Pittsburgh Steelers AT Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5 -115) – 8:20 PM – NBC

This game is a perfect opportunity to remind you all that the NFL is a week-to-week league.

Why would you back the Raiders who got smoked last week against a team riding high after a Monday night divisional win?  I’ll explain.  The Steelers beat the Browns last week and put up an impressive 26 points on one of the best defenses in the league.  Right?  Wrong.

If you watched the game or checked the scoring summary, they actually stunk.  14 points were defensive scores, and the lone offensive touchdown was a 71-yard break by the electric WR George Pickens.  Throw in two 50+ yard bomb field goals and it shows that this Pittsburgh team simply can’t move the football.

Let’s look closer.  How are they in the red zone?  Well, it’s hard to pinpoint because they’ve only been IN the red zone TWO times this season!  That’s almost hard to envision if I didn’t watch both of their games in full.  QB Kenny Pickett has regressed mightily since his run to end last year.  RB Najee Harris looks like he’s running in snowshoes.  WR Diontae Johnson is out.  It’s just all ugly all the time when they’re on offense. 

The Raiders played like garbage last week however a lot of teams lose to Josh Allen’s Bills by double digits as I outlined.  This Sunday night, they’re back at home with the world watching, and I see them pounding the rock on this porous Steelers run defense who is missing their leader Cam Heyward in the middle.  Look for QB Jimmy Garoppolo to avoid the turnovers Deshaun Watson handed over to Pittsburgh and RB Josh Jacobs to have a day as the Raiders win this game by a touchdown.

 

#1. New England Patriots (-2.5 -120) AT New York Jets – 1 PM – CBS

I’m back on Belichick and the Patriots with my #1 play of the weekend.

There is domination and then there is complete ownership of a franchise.  That’s what New England is to the Jets.  The Pats have won 14 straight games against New York, and I see that streak continuing Sunday as the rain pours down on MetLife Stadium.

QB Zach Wilson just simply isn’t very good.  He’s 0-4 straight up and against the spread in his last four starts and just doesn’t see the field well enough to beat this New England defense.  Left tackle Duane Brown has been ruled out for this game which only puts Wilson in further jeopardy.  I can’t see a scenario where he doesn’t turn the ball over multiple times Sunday, especially with the awful weather that’s expected.

The Patriots have had a brutally tough schedule to start the year going against Super Bowl contenders Philly and Miami.  This will be the welcome victory, in the division, that they need to get their season going back in the right direction.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile