NFL Week 4 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 3 Record: 2-3 / Overall: 6-9 (40%)

Gamblers always say whether you lose by a half point or by 50 (FIFTY!), they all count the same.  As the Dolphins ran up, down and around my awful Broncos (+7) bet to the tune of 70 points, that’s all I could mutter to myself. 

Let’s get the other awful loss out of the way quickly.  The Falcons (OVER 46.5) and QB Desmond Ritter are going to struggle to score all year if the run game gets stuffed.  I know this now.

As brutal as the Broncos loss was, the Texans (+8) were just as easy.  They controlled the Jags throughout this divisional game and are a team I may ride all season. 

We also hit my #1 bet in truly ugly fashion when the Patriots (-3) hung onto beat the Jets (yet again) in a game I wouldn’t have my worst enemy watch start to finish.

Finally, the Raiders (-2.5) and specifically coach Josh McDaniels may not know how football scoring works as a few absurd decisions made sure Vegas had no chance of pulling out the night game.  Noted.

 

Week 4

5. Cincinnati Bengals AT Tennessee Titans (+3 -125) – 1 PM – FOX

We start with an ol’ Top 5 faithful and that’s the underdog at home master, Mike Vrabel.

When you’re struggling with coin flip plays like the #5 pick is for me each week, sometimes you must go with what got you here.  I don’t think there’s a coach who has made me more money than Vrabel as a dog.  With that said, the Titans may, umm… stink.  Tennessee got embarrassed last Sunday but I’m willing to bet they’ll be ready to play at home in what is clearly a huge game for the franchise.  There has been a lot of chatter that this season is going to be a wash for the once AFC South power.  I don’t see them going calmly into the night just yet.

Vrabel stats alert!  

• 10-4-2 ATS coming off double digit losses.  7-1-1 as an underdog.
• Teams to score 3 points or less are 60% ATS the following week.  When they’re dogs it goes up to 65%.

The Bengals finally got their first win on Monday night at home vs the Rams but it’s not like they looked great.  In fact, I’d argue that win was more because of LA turnovers and some very bad decision making.  Cincy ranks in the bottom four in major offensive categories:  Points per game, Total Yards, Yards per play, and has the most 3-and-out drives in the league.  QB Joe Burrow is getting healthier but he’s certainly not 100% and Cincy will be coming into a tough place to play on short rest.  Look for this game to be grimy and ugly at times with the Titans covering the 3 points.

 

4. New England Patriots AT Dallas Cowboys (-6 -112) – 4:25 PM – FOX

I went back and forth on whether to play the Cowboys or the Under for this week’s Top 5 but settled on backing an angry and embarrassed Dallas team at home against the porous New England offense.

As I mentioned above, no team got more shell-shocked than the ‘Boys last weekend in Arizona.  They lost outright as a 12.5-point favorite to a team most thought were tanking for Caleb Williams.  When you watch the game, you see how tentative and unprepared QB Dak Prescott was throughout.  For example, there were multiple opportunities for him to run for 1st downs that he didn’t take but I expect him to play well against a very good Patriots defense this weekend.

New England got their first win last Sunday in New York but it’s not like they looked particularly good.  QB Mac Jones, although I’m still a believer in his future, doesn’t have the weapons offensively to move the ball on long drives which is what they will need to do against this Cowboys defense.  I envision Micah Parsons and co. running roughshod in this game to the tune of 5+ sacks and a couple turnovers as the Cowboys get right at home.

 

3. Atlanta Falcons VS. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3 -115) – 9:30 AM – ESPN+

We travel across the pond for our next pick taking the “Home” team in Jacksonville’s second home country.

The Jags need this game badly after getting smacked around by Houston at home last weekend.  If they want to get where they were projected to be, this MUST be a W.

Favorites are 29-9-1 straight up and 25-14 ATS in International matchups.  Jacksonville is very comfortable overseas with games there each year since its inception.  In fact, they will be staying in the UK for two straight weeks, and I believe this time together as a team away from any distractions will be great for them moving forward.

We know the Falcons want to run the ball, however the only thing the Jags have consistently done well so far this season is bottle up the ground game.  Atlanta ranks bottom five in Yards per game, Passing yards, yards per play and 3rd down conversions.  I expect Jacksonville to keep the Dirty Birds at bay en route to a comfortable touchdown victory.

 

2. Minnesota Vikings (-4.5 -110) AT Carolina Panthers – 1 PM – FOX

My oh my things have changed this year for Minnesota.  Last season, they were 11-1 in one score games.  This season, 0-3. 

Each one of Minnesota’s losses can be directed towards turnovers, bad coaching decisions and all-around bonehead plays in crunch time making them one of the “unluckiest” teams in the league.  They boast the league leading wide receiver in Justin Jefferson, a QB Kirk Cousins who completes 70% of his throws, and the #2 yards per play offense yet find themselves winless.  That changes Sunday.

I can’t believe I’m saying this in the year 2023, but if Andy Dalton was playing QB for the Panthers I’d fade this game entirely, but it appears rookie Bryce Young will be starting.  I think he is going to be a good pro, but that time isn’t now.  He is completing a dreadful 24% of his throws downfield and outside of veteran Adam Thielan, he isn’t finding any of his weapons with consistency. 

I see the Vikings crowding their former wide out and making Bryce beat them with longer chunk plays which he will fail to do as Minnesota finally gets in the Win column by 5 or more.

 

1. Miami Dolphins AT Buffalo Bills (-2.5 -120) – 1 PM – CBS

I’ll wait while you all have a good laugh as you scrolled down to see I’m, once again, going against the mighty Dolphins in the Top 5.  Get it out of your system because the Bills are smashing Miami Sunday!

Ok, maybe not ‘smashing’, but I love Josh Allen and Buffalo in this, the unquestioned Game of the Week in the NFL.  I said in last week’s article, “If the Dolphins blow out Sean Payton, then I’ll give them a hat tip and be on my way…” and for those in my circle, I recorded that video and tipped my cap for all to see.  However, as the score continued to get out of control, I kept placing my Bills bets as confidently as ever.  Listen, 70 points is bananas in the NFL.  It’s so wild that in a league where water always finds its level, a team put up TEN touchdowns.  The Broncos are a joke and should be treated as such.  The Bills ain’t the Broncos.

Buffalo’s defense has been tremendous this season.  They are 2nd in the league in sacks and are 3rd in fewest yards after the catch.  What do the Dolphins excel in?  When Tua has time, they find space and run track meets to the endzone.  They average 8.4 yards per play which is the most ever since the St. Louis Rams “Greatest Show on Turf” offense of the late 90’s/early 00’s.  The Bills will boast, by far, the best front 7 Tua has had to work around, and he will not have all day long to time the big plays.

Some other fun Dolphins/Bills stats and trends:

• Tua’s QBR is just 59 lifetime vs Buffalo, 80+ against everyone else.
• Josh Allen is 6-0 against the Dolphins at home, 9-2 overall.
• The Bills lead the league in 3rd down conversion rate which will help keep the vaunted Miami offense off the field.
• This is a fun one – The Dolphins are the 12th team in history to be 3-0 straight up and ATS but an underdog in Week 4.  Those teams are 2-9 straight up and 3-8 ATS.

I’ll conclude the article with this question you need to ask yourself.  If the Bills didn’t lose to the Jets Week 1, on 9/11, in New York, behind four awful turnovers, and a walk off punt return and instead were coming into this game undefeated like Miami is, what would the line be?  My guess is -5.5.  We are getting a GIFT at this -2.5 number.  Get your bets in before it climbs to -3!

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile