NFL Week 5 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 4 Record: 5-0 (!!!) / Overall: 11-9 (55%)

It happened ladies and gentlemen...  We swept the board!

There is no greater feeling than sniffing out winners, betting them one by one, adding in that beauty of a 0.5 unit on a +2300 parlay with all your researched picks with confidence, and counting your money by 8 PM EST. 

• Our Jaguars (-3) were up 17-0 before you finished your morning coffee, ultimately winning by 16 at Wembley Stadium.
• The Bills (-2.5) waxed the Dolphins, humbling America’s love affair that is Miami’s offense to the tune of 48-20.
• Minnesota (-4.5) scraped by the hapless Panthers in Charlotte on the back of a delightful defensive lineman rumble/stumble TD.
• The Titans (+3) embarrassed a sad and distraught Bengals team at home as Mike Vrabel continues to be the King of the Home Dog.
• Finally in Dallas (-6), there was never a doubt as Mac Jones and co. gift wrapped two defensive TDs as the Cowboys dismantled New England 38-3.

Easy Money!

As great as last Sunday was, the pressure is greater than ever now to keep the train traveling into the green light.  Hop aboard because I couldn’t be reading this league more clearly than I am right now.

 

Week 5

5. Houston Texans AT Atlanta Falcons (-1.5 -110) – 1 PM – FOX

I want to be very clear; I love the Texans.  Not sure any team so far this season has cashed more tickets for me than Houston.  This is purely a spot fade.

I’d argue the Texans fan base should be the happiest in the entire league.  FINALLY hitting on a QB in the draft is one of the best feelings a franchise can have.  CJ Stroud is the real deal people.  He has been nothing short of fantastic during his first month as a pro.  Not only that, but the team is cruising after back-to-back upset wins over the Jaguars and Steelers.  They have the young QB, the two-stud young wide receivers, the young bell cow running back and a defense that is showing life under DeMeco Ryans.

With all of that said, that is precisely why you must take the Falcons at home this week on this short 1.5-point line.  Water always finds its level with teams like the Texans.  It’s a classic let down spot for them.  I know it doesn’t feel good and it shouldn’t!  Gambling is hard and forces you into plays you don’t really want to root for but cash just the same.

There is nothing appealing about Atlanta other than RB Bijan Robinson who is electric.  The QB stinks.  They can’t throw the ball downfield.  They defend pretty well, and they can run the ball to the right side of the line.  That’s about it.  However, I must note that Desmond Ritter dating back to the University of Cincinnati is 1,000,000-0 at home (slightly exaggerated but he has never lost a home game).

I’m taking the Falcons at #5 this week to win a gutty one in Mercedes-Benz Stadium against a not quite ready Houston team riding high.

 

4. Cincinnati Bengals AT Arizona Cardinals (OVER 44.5 -110) – 4:05 PM – FOX

Each week I’ll scour the board to find an O/U that is a bit off the beaten path, that you may not have much of a take on but screams out to me.  This game of team’s no one can figure out is the perfect one.

The Bengals are bad.  It sucks to see a team with so much talent and promise disintegrate to the bottom of the league in almost every offensive category.  QB Joe Burrow has been awful, but the poor guy is working on one good leg.  The word out of the Cincy facility is that he is doing much better this week and is completely off the injury report.  That’s great news for Bengals fans.

The Cardinals meanwhile have been a spread darling most of the season and has showed a lot more pop on offense than we expected.  They’re running the ball at a fantastic clip ranking 6th in the league.  QB Josh Dobbs has gone from not having his jersey printed for purchase to leading a genuinely frisky team to competitive games, even defeating the Cowboys as a 12-point dog two weeks ago.

The ‘Zona defense however ranks in the bottom 6 in total yards and have given up 25.5 points per game.  Cincy isn’t much better at 23.5 a game.  I expect the Bengals to look more like themselves Sunday afternoon in a back-and-forth tilt where I could see either team coming out on top.

 

3. Kansas City Chiefs AT Minnesota Vikings (+3.5 -115) – 4:25 PM – CBS

Another gross one that you’re going to have to trust me on in the 4 PM slate.

The Chiefs are 3-1, their three wins include a snoozefest in Jacksonville, a torching of the Bears during their nonstop franchise turmoil, and last Sunday night’s squeaker against Zach Wilson and the Jets.  They haven’t looked like, well… the Chiefs.  Yet.

Kansas City does this every season.  Win games that you never really feel are in doubt and not cover.  They LOVE not covering.  QB Patrick Mahomes loves NOT covering so much, he slid down at the 1-foot line last week (correct football play, I know) sending Chiefs bettors into orbit as they saw their -8.5 ticket turn red when the clock turned 0:00.

Minnesota may be bad, especially on the defense side of the ball.  But one thing they are not in need of is offensive firepower.  They’re still the same loaded offense as they were last year capturing the NFC North crown.  The difference this season is they’ve lost three one possession games instead of winning them like they did in 2022.  Kirk Cousins is exponentially better at home, in the dome, and he will be able to hang with KC on the scoreboard throughout this game.  Plus, they finally got that victory taste in their mouth last week to turn their season around.

I’m going to keep betting against Mahomes when the line is over a FG in the first half of the year.  It’s been an extremely lucrative strategy that we’re going to cash in on again.

 

2. Baltimore Ravens AT Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

Oh boy, David is BACK on Mikey Tomlin in the Top 5.

I’m sure you all know by now, I’m a total sucker for trends.  There is no matchup that shows more glaring trends than the iconic Steelers/Ravens rivalry.  Prepare yourselves:

• During the Tomlin vs. Harbaugh era the underdog is 22-5-3 ATS.
• The Underdog has covered 11 (ELEVEN!) straight games.
• When the line is 3 or more, the dog is 21-3-3.
• 8 of the last 9 Ravens/Steelers games have been decided by one score.
• Lamar Jackson’s QB rating is 67.4 against Pittsburgh in his career, the worst against any team in the league.

The Steelers got absolutely pummeled last Sunday in Houston.  Kenny Pickett is going to play but is far from 100% (and may be bad anyways).  The once vaunted Steelers defense is leaky and that’s generous.  BUT this is Ravens vs. Steelers!  This game is perpetually close every single season.  You’d be shocked at how many 16-14, 16-13 type snoozefests these two rivals have played for the world to (begrudgingly) see.

The trends I listed above are so jaw-dropping that I simply wouldn’t forgive myself if I didn’t play Steelers getting 4.5 points at home.

 

1. Dallas Cowboys AT San Francisco 49ers (-3.5 -110) – 8:20 PM – NBC

In our top spot we have the Game of the Season.

49ers/Cowboys is being tabbed as an NFC Title preview by most and rightfully so.  The Niners are undefeated and have decimated every team they’ve played behind an incredible run game, an efficient beyond belief QB, and a tremendous head coach and scheme.  The Cowboys have a major slip up in Arizona on their resume sandwiched between blowout victories against teams from the Northeast. 

Everyone truly will be “Waiting All Day for Sunday Night” (shout out Carrie Underwood) to get their eyes on these two storied franchises.  So why San Fran?

Well, they’re simply the better team in my opinion.  Dallas leads the league in scoring defense, turnover margin, and ranks 2nd in total yards allowed per game.  But who have they really played?  Four 1-3 teams all looking at the draft a quarter through the season.  Listen, I’m firmly in the “you can only play who is on your schedule” camp but this is easily the biggest test they have had by a mile.  And remember, they still have Dak Prescott who is a perennial “come up small” guy.

San Francisco ranks top 5 in total offense, defense, scoring, and points allowed.  RB Christian McCaffrey is a legit MVP candidate so far this year with an astounding 6 TDs while averaging over 114 yards on the ground per game.  Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are still doing their thing within the scheme and Brandon Aiyuk has emerged as incredible down field threat.  Here’s a fun stat, each of Aiyuk’s 17 receptions this year have been for first downs or touchdowns, and he ranks 3rd in average yard per catch (18.8 yards) between wide outs who have 20 or more targets.  That’s insane.

I must mention the young QB Brock Purdy too.  This guy is making the “game manager” look easy in Shanahan’s system.  He ranks 3rd in the league in completion percentage (72.3%) and has zero interceptions. 

I could go on and on, but you get it, the Niners are loaded.

I expect San Fran to come out and show the world they are the best team in football while also proving why the Cowboys are always the Cowboys.   

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabile