NFL Week 6 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 5 Record: 4-1 / Overall: 15-10 (60%)

We are COOKING now ladies and gentlemen!

60% on the year and 9-1 over the last two weeks.  The board is shining like a light beam to me right now and I LOVE my Top 5 again this week!

• We begin in Atlanta (-1.5) where QB Desmond Ritter had his best game as a pro squeaking out the 0.5-point victory against the Texans at home.
• The Steelers (+4.5) and Ravens played the same exact same game they play every season.  Gross, unwatchable slop that saw Pittsburgh come from behind late to win the game outright.
• The Bengals/Cardinals Over 44.5 was the easiest bet of the daytime games.  Burrow and Chase connected 3 times in the game that saw our over hit by the 3rd quarter. 
• The only blemish on the day were those sorry Vikings (+3.5) who were provided with every opportunity to cover and win this game against the champs and blew it.
• In the night game, you could comfortably go to sleep at halftime as the 49ers (-3.5) smashed, dismantled, and embarrassed “America’s Team” for all the world to see.

REMINDER!  The weather around the country is volatile this Sunday with the forecasts changing quickly the past few days.  I’ll mention the current forecast for the applicable games in my summaries (up to the time of this posting).

 

Week 6

5. Minnesota Vikings AT Chicago Bears (+3 -110) – 1 PM – FOX

Forecast: 54 degrees.  Showers in the morning and mostly cloudy.  20-25 MPH winds.

I’m going against a lot of my beliefs here at #5 but hear me out.

Normally, a team who didn’t cover the week before going against a team who just won big on primetime is an auto bet, but I truly believe these teams are going in opposite directions. 

Now, I’m not going to tell you the Bears are making the playoffs, they’re still a pretty bad team.  But they have something cooking the last two weeks with their offense.  QB Justin Fields is playing free, running calculated RPO’s, and getting their #1 WR DJ Moore the ball in space.  The Vikings meanwhile are a trainwreck.  They lead the league with 12 giveaways, are down arguably the best WR in the league in Justin Jefferson and are one loss away from fully blowing up the roster according to reports.

With wind in the forecast, I see the Bears getting their ground game going early and often.  Minnesota on the other hand, can’t run the ball ranking 29th in the league at a paltry 80.8 yards per game.  With Jefferson out and Jordan Addison hurting as well, the Vikings are going to have a lot of trouble sustaining drives.

This game has “White Flag waving” written all over it in the Vikings locker room and I suspect we won’t be seeing much more of Kirk Cousins in the purple and gold.

 

4. New Orleans Saints (-1.5 -110) AT Houston Texans – 1 PM – FOX

I MAY be flying too close to the sun betting against my guy CJ Stroud again on a short line, but I really hate this spot for the Texans.

We know what the Saints are now five weeks into the season.  They play elite defense (4th in Total Defense and 4th in Scoring Defense) and QB Derek Carr is being smart with the football (100 passer rating the past 3 weeks and zero INT’s).  They are firmly in the mix for an NFC South crown, and this is a game they need to have to get where they want to go.

Houston has an incredible future.  I simply love how they play with their young guys and DeMeco Ryans is a fantastic coach in the making.  However, this will be far and away the best defense that Stroud has faced.  New Orleans ranks 1st in opponent Passer Rating (66.1) and make it incredibly difficult for teams to convert 3rd downs (31.5% - 3rd in the league). 

The reality is that Stroud is due for a bad performance.  Beyond due.  The kid has set records for not throwing a pick this far into his rookie season.  However, there is five weeks of film on him now and Dennis Allen will have something he hasn’t seen before for sure.

This will be a nervous one all the way to the end and I see the Saints squeaking out of Texas with the W.

 

3. Detroit Lions AT Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3 -110) – 4:25 PM – FOX

Forecast: 76 degrees and Sunny

The Darlings of the NFL are the Detroit Lions.  What a world!

They’ve been fantastic and are not a fluke.  Jared Goff, who shockingly is the best Against the Spread QB the past 5 seasons, has legitimate MVP buzz and RB David Montgomery has been a revelation on all 3 downs.  They should coast to an NFC North Title and host a playoff game.

So why the Bucs?  Is it the Creamsicle Jerseys that they’re going to wear in this game?  No, no its not.  Although I can not WAIT to see them.  This is a full-on SPOT play.

The Lions are one of the most publicly bet teams in the league and the public has been EATING so far this season.  In fact, I believe this is the most profitable first 5 weeks for the public in recorded history.  Water always finds it level and I believe this game in Tampa is a perfect opportunity to get on the other side.

Of note: Although Goff has been a covering machine, he’s only .500 outdoors. 

The Bucs are coming off a bye and are healthy.  QB Baker Mayfield has excelled with the improved weapons around him and has shown he can stay in games against top opponents.  They are 3-1 and if there weren’t a few key drops against the Eagles in Week 3, that game would have been much closer.

I’m selling high on the Lions and taking the 3 points with those sweet, sweet Creamsicles.

 

2. Seattle Seahawks AT Cincinnati Bengals (OVER 45 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

Forecast: 55 degrees and cloudy.  10 MPH winds

I am back on the Bengals over this Sunday, and I absolutely love this bet.

Cincy clearly figured something out last week in Arizona.  Burrow was moving around the pocket much better, Chase was literally “always open”, and the run game was effective.  They looked like, well… the Bengals again.  Keep in mind, Joe Burrow is the 2nd best QB in the league the last two years from Week 5 on.  (Week 5 and beyond: 11-2, 70.6 completion percentage, 284.1 YPG, 30 TD-9 INT, 104.5 Passer Rating).

I fully expect that trend to continue as we move forward.

The Seahawks are coming into this game off the bye after beating the Giants in a genuinely unwatchable game 2 weeks ago.  (I can’t believe we have to watch the Giants AGAIN in primetime this week, but I digress…)  QB Geno Smith has been playing very well so far this year completing over 68% of his passes with 5 TD to only 1 INT (97.8 QB Rating).  RB Kenneth Walker has picked up where he left off last season as well getting into the endzone 5 times already in their first 4 games.

The weather has flipped in Cincy this week and after what appeared to be a wash out, is now sitting at a calm and perfect 55-degree Autumn Day.  I see this being one of the best games of the slate as both teams counter each other all game long.

 

1. Indianapolis Colts (+4 -115) AT Jacksonville Jaguars – 1 PM – CBS

Forecast: Showers in the morning, mostly cloudy, 54 degrees, 20-25 mph winds

We rudely welcome home the Jacksonville Jaguars from their 2-week London vacation with our #1 pick of the week.  I love Indy in this game and moving forward this season.

I want to start by acknowledging that yes, the Colts are a very public dog this Sunday, but I remain unafraid.  They’re a GOOD team with a GREAT coach.  Shane Steichen has parlayed his fantastic tenure in Philadelphia to a very sound Indianapolis team.  They block well, they tackle well, and they don’t hurt themselves.  Also, QB Gardner Minshew is not that much of a downgrade from Anthony Richardson.  He is the perfect backup QB who will win you a few games before the wheels start to loosen.  They won’t roll over for any team, let alone a division rival coming home from two weeks across the pond. 

You probably have seen this stat floating around this week but it’s a beauty:

• Eleven times a team has returned from Europe without a bye week.  Every team was either been tied OR trailing in the 4th quarter of the next week.

There is no doubt in my mind that this will be a one possession game late in the 4th.  In that scenario, I will gladly take the 4 points and I could see the Colts winning this game outright.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabile