NFL Week 7 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 6 Record: 0-5 / Overall: 15-15 (50%)

Whoa baby, did we have one ‘humbler’ of a Sunday.  Woof.

I always talk about water finding its level in my game summaries and I had an all time tidal wave drop on top of me in Week 6.  Let’s get to it:

• Justin Fields dislocated his finger and that was that.  The Bears (+3) had nothing in this game and lost all competitive willpower once their QB went down. 
• The Saints (-1.5) have the worst offense and kicker to watch with your own two eyes in the league.  Carr is not the answer, that much is clear.
• The Bengals/Seahawks OVER 45 looked amazing early as 21 points had come across the goal line 2 minutes into the 2nd quarter.  Unfortunately for us, both teams hit the breaks and only mustered 9 more points the rest of the game.  Ugh.
• The Colts (+4.5) and “Minshew Magic” died a hard and fast death as his ball kept floating over receivers’ heads and into the waiting arms of Jags defenders.  It was ugly in Florida.
• Finally, Baker Mayfield and the Bucs (+3) played awful.  There were some very key drops and penalties early when the game was in the balance but you are not going to win and cover scoring six measly points at home.

Ugly!  We move forward into Week 7.

 

Week 7

5. Buffalo Bills (-7.5 -110) AT New England Patriots – 1 PM – CBS

We begin this week in the sad and frustrated confines of Gilette Stadium.

The Patriots have had a dreadful season and there is no real end in sight.  The offense is anemic and the defense has lost every defender that strikes any fear into opposing teams.  And the Quarterback… sheesh, I don’t even know what to say that hasn’t been beaten into our brains by talking heads around the country.  He’s bad, I’ll leave it there.

Normally, I would NEVER bet a road favorite of over a TD in a divisional game but sometimes you must go with your gut and more obvious, your eyeballs.  This is a complete fade of where the Patriots are organizationally in the year 2023.

QB Josh Allen has played extremely well against the Pats of late winning five of the last six games while throwing 13 TDs to only 2 INTs.  Buffalo looked bad Sunday night hanging on by a thread (of Darren Waller’s jersey) against the Giants.  That performance was so gross that it makes me like them that much more in this matchup.  This is simple, if the Bills want to be recognized as one of the league’s best teams, they go into Foxboro and smash New England. 

 

4. Green Bay Packers AT Denver Broncos (OVER 45 -110) – 4:25 PM – CBS

One of the time-honored traditions of a gambler is betting on games there is no way you would watch otherwise.  Packers/Broncos certainly falls into that category.

I love this over Sunday afternoon.  These teams have defenses who have been exposed in numerous games yet both have intriguing offensive weaponry to put points on the board.  Both teams have offensive minded head coaches.  Both are healthy entering the game.  Finally, both QBs have a LOT to prove. 

The Packers are coming into this game fresh off their bye week highly motivated after two tough losses in a row.  RB Aaron Jones is back healthy and they have the full slate of WR’s and TE’s they envisioned entering the season.  Denver is also off a mini bye playing the Chiefs tough last Thursday night.  The offense sputtered in that game but they scored 21 against a very strong Jets team the week before and have put up over 30 in two other games this season.

Oh, and the defenses?  They allow a combined 55.9 PPG.

Points Points Points!

 

3. Detroit Lions AT Baltimore Ravens (-3 -108) – 1 PM – FOX

I’m crawling back in the hole with a Lions fade again this Sunday.

This is more than “the Bucs are bad, the Ravens are good”.  This is all about the spot.  Baltimore comes home after a successful London trip beating the Titans last week.  They played an almost perfect first half before letting Tennessee hang around in the 2nd.  They ultimately won and covered like good teams do.  QB Lamar Jackson hasn’t been himself sure, but he also has had terrible luck.  Turn on a Ravens game and you’ll see them trudging up and down the field with ease only to see a dropped pass or penalty stall the drive.  I think they turned a corner last Sunday.

Detroit is awesome.  Yes, I know, they’re AWESOME!  It’s been a magical season so far for Dan Campbell’s boys of the North.  QB Jared Goff continues to amaze many and is a legitimate MVP candidate.  He is, I’ll say again, the most profitable QB ATS in the past 5 seasons.  However, I just can’t see them winning outdoors in back-to-back weeks, this one being against such a veteran laden team like Baltimore with sights on a division title.

The Lions come in scorching but they’re certainly banged up.  RB David Montgomery is out, as is WR Marvin Jones.  They will be getting back rookie Jahmyr Gibbs who is not 100% or an ideal 3 down back.  3rd string running back Craig Reynolds is holding a questionable tag for the game as well.  This may be solely on Goff to generate consistent first downs and put points on the board to stay with the favored Ravens. 

Coach John Harbaugh is an astounding 82-26 straight up as a home favorite in his coaching career.  Give me the Purple and Black to win by a TD.

 

2. Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5 -110) AT Kansas City Chiefs – 4:25 PM – CBS

Death, Taxes, and bet against Mahomes when favored by 3.5 or more.

Ok, it isn’t that black and white, but I do think this is an ideal opportunity for the Chargers to turn some heads.  LA did not perform well on Monday night vs the Cowboys.  QB Justin Herbert was clearly not seeing that defense well and may be hampered by a hand injury.  The Chiefs defense has been very strong and I do lean towards the under here as well.  With that said, KC hasn’t been themselves offensively yet.

This game is always close.  Hell, all the Chargers games are.  This shocked me: 19 of the last 24 Chargers games have been decided by 7 points or less dating back to the end of the 2021 season including the last eight losses.  Herbert has never NOT covered a 6-point spread against the Chiefs (one was a push because a walk-off TD in Overtime). 

Back to Mahomes.  So far through six weeks he has career lows in passing yards, TD:INT ratio, and passer rating.  He hasn’t played awful by any means but he clearly hasn’t synced up with the new skill players they’ve employed this season.  In fact, the Chiefs lead the league in dropped passes.  They’ve also struggled to score in the redzone ranking 17th.  The Chargers meanwhile rank 5th in redzone scoring.

Like I said in the open, Mahomes when favored by more than 3.5 points is well under .500 ATS in his career.  They may win the game (like they always seem to) but this will undoubtedly be right down to the wire.  I’ll gladly take the 5.5 points.

 

1. Miami Dolphins AT Philadelphia Eagles (-3 -105) – 8:20 PM – NBC

The Game of the Year is under the lights in South Philadelphia.

Donning the GORGEOUS Kelly Green alternate uniforms, Philly comes into this game off their first loss of the season in New York.  The Jets smothered QB Jalen Hurts in the 2nd half, forcing 3 INTs and 4 turnovers overall.  Yet somehow the Eagles only lost by one score.  Let us not forget, the Eagles are still one of the most dynamic teams in football.  And now they’re at home, with the world’s eyes on them, and pissed off.

Miami’s offense is the talk of the league and rightfully so.  They truly look like when you’re playing Madden on Rookie mode.  WR Tyreek Hill is on pace for 2300 yards and 17 touchdowns.  What in the hell?  That’s insane.  These 60 minutes will be a massive undertaking for the Birds’ secondary who is very banged up.  Slot corner Avonte Maddox is out for the year, Bradley Roby is out for this game and safety Reed Blankenship will also be in street clothes.  This is problematic, yes.  But I expect Philly to have something for this motion heavy offense putting all the emphasis on keeping things in front of them while the D Line eats. 

Speaking of that D line, they will be getting rookie sensation Jalen Carter back in the middle after missing a game.  He and the rest of that pass rush is looking to be only the 2nd team to get to Tua in the pocket this season.  That other team was the Bills who smashed Miami by 4 touchdowns earlier this season (and were my #1 pick as well that week).  The reality is, the Dolphins are 5-1, four of those five wins vs the dregs of the league.  Carolina, New York Giants, Denver and New England are a combined 3-21.  I’m giving them credit for beating the Chargers (2-3) but that was Week 1 in a “whomever has the ball last wins” barnburner. 

The Dolphins have the 26th ranked scoring defense this season and I expect the Eagles (2nd in the league in total offense) to essentially do whatever they want on that side of the ball.  Hurts’ last 13 home games are coupled with incredible numbers:  12-1, 32:6 TD:INT ratio, and 102.8 passer rating.  The Eagles are ranked 3rd in time of possession this season holding onto the ball for over 34 minutes a game while converting a league leading 50.6% on 3rd down.  They wear you down physically and mentally when they’re at their best.  I expect their best on NBC Sunday night.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabile