NFL Week 8 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 7 Record: 2-3 / Overall: 17-18 (48.6%)

• We start with a scorching Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (-3) humbling Detroit repeatedly at M&T Bank Stadium.  Don’t look now, but Baltimore is a top 4 team in the league. 
• I will never forgive myself for that square Bills (-7.5) bet.  All the bye weeks shortened the card, and I forced this in at #5.  I even said it in my summary “This goes against everything I believe in”.  Never again.
• The Packers/Broncos (Over 45) was indeed… gross.  Both offenses killed this bet as they combined for 3-7 in the redzone.  You’re rarely going to hit an over when SIX field goals are attempted, four of which were under an extra point distance.  Ugh.
• The Chargers (+5.5) are such losers.  KC begged and pleaded for them to stay in this game but Justin Herbert refused to pounce throwing two awful INTs in huge moments.  It’s amazing to me that Herbert gets such a pass nationally.  If he was in a bigger pro football market like KC, Dallas, Philly, Baltimore, etc., he would be crucified for most of his play this season. 
• Finally, in easily the biggest bet I’ve placed all season, the Eagles (-3) donned that stunning Kelly Green and waxed the Dolphins.  The game finished as a 14-point win but felt like 40.  To lose the turnover battle, give up a fluky pick 6, all while playing an historically great offense through 6 games and STILL win handily was impressive.  The Eagles reminded the world they’re a top 2 team in this league.

Week 8 has a TON of home dogs that are incredibly enticing.  Prepare yourself because some of these may make you sick.

 

Week 8

5. Jacksonville Jaguars AT Pittsburgh Steelers (+2 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

Come on, you knew I was going to do this…

Tomlin as a dog at home = Auto Bet.  Listen, the wheels are going to come off this trend at some point in our lifetimes.  But it’s just impossible to overlook!

• Tomlin 18-5-3 as a home dog ATS.  16 wins straight up.
• Tomlin 57-31-4 as an underdog overall.
• When the Steelers are home dogs and the opponent is winning at 60% clip (aka good teams), Pittsburgh is 14-3-1 ATS.

And on and on it goes.  Can a streaking Jags team come in and buck all these statistics?  Sure, they can.  But I refuse to bet against them until they cost me.  So far this year, Tomlin in these spots has delivered.  Not to mention, the team has been playing very good of late.  RB Jaylen Warren is extremely talented, and the brass finally notice that as his touches have gone up each week.  WR Dionte Johnson returned last Sunday to get some attention off stud WR George Pickens giving Kenny Pickett more weapons at his disposal.

Let’s talk about the Jaguars a little bit.  They are playing well since losing to the Texans by 20 in Week 3.  Winners of four straight (including two in London) over the past 19 days is incredibly impressive.  However, I think it has got to have taken its toll on the players and that sweet, sweet bye week is just two days away.  I’m betting that human nature takes over for Jacksonville this week as they look forward to their well-deserved rest and slip up here in Pitt.

 

4. Minnesota Vikings AT Green Bay Packers (+1 -110) – 1 PM – FOX

Come on and join me in the slop bucket as we have a disgusting one coming in at #4.

The Packers are 2-4 and losers of three straight.  QB Jordan Love hasn’t lit the world on fire but when you watch the tape, he hasn’t been THAT bad.  The reality is, the Packers drop the ball a ton and the coaching has left a lot to be desired.  That coupled with a run game who has missed Aaron Jones for half of the season, it’s been a recipe for a bad football team.

On the other side we have a Vikings team coming off one of the most impressive wins of the season last week at home against the Niners.  All the talk about how Kirk Cousins can’t perform in primetime can be laid to rest (for now) as he absolutely LIT UP the SF defense to the tune of 378 yards on 35 completions.

So why are we backing GB?  The almighty “Spot Play” is back and beautiful with this pick. 

Minnesota off its best win of the season when everyone had buried them prior against a dead and buried Packers team some people think may be one of the worst teams in the conference?  Yes, yes, yes.  Always remember, the books are worlds smarter than the public.  They know damn well the people will be on Minnesota.  They’re banking on that.  We’re not going to fall for it. 

The Packers and coach Matt LaFleur know the Vikings extremely well.  I believe these young WR’s, who have been plagued by drops and lack of separation this season, find their stride in this division matchup for some big plays.  Also of note, Love has been exponentially better against the blitz with man coverage behind than he is reading zones.  The Vikings blitz more than any team in the league. 

Fun Cousins trend for you: Kirk is 29-42-2 ATS off a win. 

Trust the spot.

 

3. New York Jets AT New York Giants (+3 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

We remain amongst the unwatchables with the “Battle of New York (East Rutherford, NJ)”.  Whoa baby is this game going to set football back 100 years.  But I LOVE it!

Veteran QB Tyrod Taylor is back under center for the Giants for the 3rd straight week.  He took Buffalo to the buzzer in their building and then beat division rival Washington at home last week.  He hasn’t set the world on fire, but he hasn’t messed anything up either.  That’s the key.  They’ve also opened up the offense with Taylor at the helm with 11 plays of 20 yards or more in his two starts.

The Jets defense is known as one of the best in the league.  They’ve more or less shut down Patrick Mahomes and have wins against Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen.  With that said, I looked a little closer into the numbers.  They are 4th in the league with 13 takeaways, which is great.  However, they are 23rd in total defense, 26th in rush defense and middle of the pack in Points per game and pass defense.  In my opinion, turnovers and star names have carried them in the public eye.  Guess how many turnovers Tyrod Taylor has in his two starts?  Zippo.

A good rule of thumb, low Over/Under’s like this one (35.5) almost always lean toward to the dog. 

• When the O/U is 42 or lower, underdogs are 23-8-1 ATS and 160-102 since 2018. 

I think the Giants found something last week, especially defensively.  They appear to have established their footing and I’ll gladly take the 3 points when Zach Wilson and his 73.4 QB Rating is on the other side.

 

2. Cleveland Browns AT Seattle Seahawks (-3.5 -110) – 4:05 PM – FOX

Don’t look now but the Seahawks are quietly 4-2 and tied at the top of the NFC West division in the loss column.

After opening the season with a loss to a bad Rams team (more on them next), they’ve won 4 of 5 and had every opportunity to take one from the Bengals in Cincy a few weeks ago.  They do so much well.  They run the ball, they tackle, they make big plays, and they have three wide receivers who I would put up against any in the NFL.  QB Geno Smith has also continued his resurgence after winning Comeback Player of the Year last season.  My point is this is a team to be reckoned with.

Cleveland meanwhile “won” last week when the refs handed them the comeback in Indianapolis.  In that game they came screaming back down to Earth defensively letting Gardner Minshew put up 37 points on them after almost blanking SF the previous week.  They are banged up all over the place including QB Deshaun Watson who won’t play in this game.  Quite frankly, I don’t think that guy wants to play football at all but that’s just my opinion.

I bet this game earlier in the week at -3 but I’m not afraid of the hook.  I see Lumen Field buzzin’ Sunday afternoon and the ‘Hawks riding that momentum to a comfy 10-point win.

 

1. Los Angeles Rams AT Dallas Cowboys (-6 -110) – 1 PM – FOX

I’m back in the NFC East for my #1 pick in this week’s Top 5.

The Cowboys are an anomaly seven weeks into the season.  They haven’t played all that great in totality, but they still possess immense talent.  They come into this game off their bye week and in desperate need of a dominating win as they try to stay close to the Eagles for the division crown.

Let’s look at the matchup.  The Rams offensive line is arguably the worst in football.  Pittsburgh lived in LA’s backfield all game last week and although Stafford does a great job of getting rid of the ball, his completion percentage has come crashing under 60% and he’s tossed 6 INTs.  Dallas, meanwhile, leads the league in pressure rate and mostly with just their front four.  Led by the mighty Micah Parsons, I can’t see a scenario where Matty Stafford is not running for his life for 60 minutes.

The Rams are 3-4 which isn’t terrible on paper, but I feel they’ve been exposed against good teams since that aberration Week 1 in Seattle.  The Eagles, 49ers, Bengals, and Steelers have all handled LA in the 2nd half of those games.  They have a tough time getting off the field on defense and I see the Cowboys doing the exact same thing those teams did.

QB Dak Prescott is not without warts.  I’ve never been a fan but his numbers as a big favorite jarred me. 

• Dak is 31-7 Straight up as a favorite of 6 or more.  26-11-1 ATS.
• He is 16-8-2 ATS at home in total.
• The Cowboys have won 10 straight home games averaging 33 points per game and is +16 in turnover differential during that streak.

Couple all of this with that old tried and true west coast team playing at 1 PM EST and I LOVE the Cowboys in this game.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabile