NFL Week 10 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 9 Record: 3-2 / Overall: 22-22-1 (50%)

At the halfway point of the season, we stand exactly at 50%.  Kind of wild and certainly not where I wanted to be.  However, I am obsessed with the board for Week 10 and found it extremely difficult to stick to only five games.  Let’s get to the recap:

• We never had a doubt that our Raiders/Giants UNDER 37.5 was hitting!  Kidding, kidding...  Thank goodness for Tommy DeVito being on the G-Men roster because the Raiders came out for blood in this one running it up 30-6.
• The Eagles (-3) did just enough to hold off a stellar Dak Prescott performance (and a couple lucky breaks from the one-foot line) to cover at home.
• In one of the worst bets you ever did see, rookie QB Bryce Young threw not one but TWO pick 6’s to Colts DB Kenny Moore en route to a comfy Indy win over our Panthers (+2.5) in Charlotte.
• We bounced back Sunday night as Joe Burrow and the Bengals (-2.5) locked down another #1 pick in the Top 5, beating Buffalo for their 4th win in a row.
• Finally, Monday night set football back 100 years when the Jets (+3.5) couldn’t score, and the Chargers could barely move the ball.  I feel so damn bad for the New York D… but a bad pick nonetheless.

 

Week 10

5. Green Bay Packers AT Pittsburgh Steelers (-3 -118) – 1 PM – CBS

I know, I know… Steelers at home, Tomlin’s my guy on trends, blah blah blah.  But I have other reasons this time!

The main reason is my God Jordan Love stinks at football.  Trust me, I tried very hard to come around on him and he is still extremely young, but he misses so many easy throws it’s hard to look past.  It’s not as if the Packers are flooded with weapons too, I get that.  It’s just a very hard offense to watch. 

The Steelers offense is equally painful to put your eyes on but at least they come through in the 4th quarter.  In fact, QB Kenny Pickett is shockingly one of the most efficient 4th quarter passers in the league.  It just takes them 45 minutes to remember they’re in a football game where the goal is first downs and points.  With stud CB Jaire Alexander out for the Pack and Steelers WR Dionte Johnson finding a rhythm last week with Pickett, I see Pitt building themselves a lead for once.

This game will be a tough watch early no matter how you slice it as these teams combine for a shocking -88 in point differential in first halves.  RB Aaron Jones looked more like himself last week but with the return of Cam Heyward in the middle, the run game for the Steelers is much improved.  Without the running backs doing something special, I don’t see how the Packers can cover the 3 on the road.

JJ Watt eats Love alive and the Steelers win a “Shield Your Eyes” matchup in Pittsburgh.

 

4. San Francisco 49ers AT Jacksonville Jaguars (+3 -102) – 1 PM – FOX

This game jumped right off the page to me when I did my preliminary look at the lines Monday night. 

Correct me if I’m wrong.  Aren’t the Jags 6-2, at home, off a bye and winners of five games in a row?  And the Niners, yeah, those Niners that everyone crowned 5 weeks into the season.  Aren’t they losers of three straight with a QB everyone is souring on and their best player OT Trent Williams doubtful for this game?

Oh, and before you tell me they’re off a bye too, lets look at San Fran’s numbers after a week off.  How about 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games off a bye (2-4 under Shanahan). 

I mean, what are we doing here? 

QB Trevor Lawrence has been lights out his last 17 games.  He’s 13-4 with a 70% completion percentage, and over 100 QB Rating while throwing only 6 INTs.  Meanwhile, Brock Purdy has 6 INTs in his last 3 games as we watch the bloom fall off that rose.

I get the public loves San Francisco and I’m sure the books are banking on them pounding Niners -3 into submission but not me, not us.  Jacksonville is 4-0 against teams who enter the game with a winning record this season.  Give me the 3 points at home with what I feel is a stronger team who is playing better.

(Note – the +3 is sitting at -102 so look for this to climb up to 3.5 come kickoff.)

 

3. Cleveland Browns AT Baltimore Ravens (UNDER 38 -108) – 1 PM – FOX

Next, we have the rock fight in Baltimore.

I’m one of those sick individuals who enjoys great defenses flexing.  Don’t get me wrong, that doesn’t mean I have fun seeing Zach Wilson get thrown for 11-yard sacks (ricochet shot on Wilson), but I love wonderfully schemed defenses loaded with superstars getting the better of opposing QBs.  This game is filled with those types of players.

The AFC North is the most competitive division in football and the Ravens have risen to the top of it.  They are playing out of their minds right now, especially in two BLOWOUT home wins vs NFC division leaders (Seattle and Detroit).  But this is the Browns.  A team that knows Baltimore inside and out.  A team who won’t be in awe of Lamar Jackson bouncing around between the hashes.  They know exactly what to prepare for and how to stop it.  Most importantly, they have the dudes to hang in this game.  Myles Garrett in particular is truly a man amongst boys and the clear favorite for defensive player of the year.

Browns QB Deshaun Watson hasn’t played well, and I think a lot of that has to do with Amari Cooper being the only guy on the team who can garner any separation downfield.  RBs Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt have been good to very good running the ball to keep them competitive on that side of the ball. 

Normally, I’d jump on the 6.5 the books are giving Cleveland in this divisional matchup, especially because the Ravens are overinflated due to their recent smackdowns, but I just have this fear the Ravens may sneak a 7-point win.  So, I’m going with the under 38.  I see this game as a 16-13 or 17-10 slugfest at M&T Bank Stadium.

 

2. Washington Commanders AT Seattle Seahawks (-6 -110) – 4:25 PM – FOX

This is the quintessential ‘playoff team that goes on the road, gets smoked by a billion points against a top tier squad, and comes back home to return the favor against a team people seem to like.’

I’ve seen it a million times.

Seattle has its warts, don’t get me wrong.  But they are good at everything the Commanders can’t stop.  They run the ball, Washington just traded two of their best defensive linemen and give up 116.2 yards per game on the ground.  QB Geno Smith picks apart zones with his three headed monsters at WR, coordinator Jack Del Rio runs almost exclusively matchup zones.  The Hawks feed off big plays with their skill players, Washington has given up an astounding 22 plays of 25 yards or more (2nd most in the NFL).

Those reasons are well and good, but I want to focus on the perspective of these clubs coming in.  The Commanders are coming off a road win in New England and QB Sam Howell has been very good the last two weeks throwing for over 300 yards and even putting up 31 on Philadelphia at home.  But he’s still the most sacked QB by an alarming 14 more than the 2nd most.  I mean, this team lost to the hapless Giants 14-7 just 3 weeks ago let us not forget.

Listen, the Seahawks got smashed last week, there is no sugar coating that performance in Baltimore.  But this is going to be an angry flock at home in a classic bounce back blowout against an inferior opponent.

 

1. Detroit Lions (-3 -105) AT Los Angeles Chargers – 4:05 PM – CBS

The Lions return from the bye and back into #1 in the Top 5.

I LOVED this bet when the Lions opened as -1 and pounded away at that number and although the movement is scary, I still love them at -3.  The Chargers aren’t good at football.  They’re not!  They’re coached poorly, the QB has a wrap the size of a sock ball on his finger, the WRs outside of Keenan Allen can’t run routes or go up and get it, and the defense is solely reliant on pass rush.

As much as I don’t want to, let’s look at this past Monday night’s Los Angeles Chargers offensive stats:

• 56 total plays, 14 first downs
• 107 Net passing yards
• 84 rushing yds
• 191 (ONE NINETY-ONE!) TOTAL yds
• Herbert – 16/30 for 160 yds, 0 TDs, sacked 5 times.
• Outside of Keenan Allen, Chargers pass catchers (8 rec, 59 yds)

It’s hard to look at for goodness’ sake!

They won the game by 21 because of a punt return TD and a truly awful QB, Redzone, and 3rd down offense on the other side.  So, tell me, how am I supposed to believe they can hang with one of the most complete teams in football on Sunday afternoon?

The Lions are recharged and refreshed after their off week.  The offense has left a lot on the table the couple weeks before and I see them coming out guns blazing in this one.  RB David Montgomery is BACK and brings his red zone prowess to a team in dire need of his stature.  Rookie Jaymyr Gibbs had his best game as a pro against the Raiders in Week 8 and that one-two punch is going to hum the rest of the season.

I see Jard Goff picking apart this vaunted Chargers pass rush with play-action and quick throws to his plethora of weapons.  There is no doubt in my mind the Detroit fans are going to get themselves to sunny SoCal for this game as well as LA has 0.0% home field advantage each week.  Give me the Lions in a rout.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabile