NFL Week 11 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 10 Record: 1-3-1 / Overall: 23-25-2 (47.9%)

• We begin in Pittsburgh (-3) where a Packers missed XP and another Steelers late 4th quarter stop ensured us a victory.
• Ok let’s get this back-to-back worst bets of ALL time recap over with… Jags (+3) was just awful.  Terrible, terrible read by me on the Niners.  I thought they would still be banged up and not clicking.  Turns out Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams make a BIG difference on their ability to blow teams out.
• In the other WOAT bet, the Ravens/Browns (Under 38) was dead on the very first play from scrimmage when the Ravens had a defensive TD.  I put the red slash through this one in record time.
• The 4 PM slate wasn’t that good to me either as the Seahawks (-6) played with their food all day, at home, and needed a game winning FG to knock off the frisky Commanders.
• It took every bit of strength to not sing Detroit (-3) from the rooftops when it opened at -1.  I bet this at -1, -2, -2.5 and finally at -3 when the article was published.  It settled back in at -2.5 so hope y’all got the win like I did.  As for the record books, it goes down as a push.

 

Week 11

5. New York Jets AT Buffalo Bills (-7 -115) – 4:25 PM – CBS

We begin in the AFC East in what is a must win for both teams.

The Bills are in complete and utter shambles.  They have lost three of their last four games and find themselves at plus money to make the playoffs.  Yes, they’ve had a ton of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.  However, in no way did I think a Josh Allen team would be 5-5 halfway through the season. 

So how in the world are the Bills giving 7 points to ANYONE right now, especially to a division rival, who has already beaten them, and has a tremendous defense?

Exactly.

Never forget that Vegas ALWAYS knows.  This is the quintessential “they’re begging you to take” the Jets situation.  Also remember, when the Bills do cover (admittedly it’s been a while), they absolutely smash teams.  In spots where Josh Allen is a large favorite, he is still well over 20 games above .500 ATS. 

If the Bills were playing a more motivated team, I’d fade this game completely.  But it is high time the rest of this Jets team quit on Zach Wilson.  He has been just dreadful, and the Jets are 30-32nd in every offensive metric.  The fact this team didn’t try and trade for Josh Dobbs at the deadline is bananas.

The smoke is turning into a forest fire in Buffalo and if they don’t get this win, the playoffs are dead.  McDermott needs this game to save his job and my expectation is Josh Allen will remind the world just who in the hell he is in a 10+ point win at home.

 

4. Minnesota Vikings AT Denver Broncos (-2 -110) – 8:20 PM – NBC

Don’t look now but Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos have won three straight and find themselves only a game behind the wild card.

I don’t want to get nuts here, but you kind of have to tip your cap to ‘Bronco Nation, Let’s Ride’ don’t you?  Three wins in a row, two of which were against the defending champion Chiefs and then in Buffalo on Monday Night Football.  This is a Denver team who was (rightfully) the laughingstock of the league two months ago when they had SEVENTY hung on them in Miami.  However, since Week 6, the Broncos rank 10th in total defense. 

Let’s talk about Russ for a second.  He has the 2nd most TDs (18) and the 2nd fewest INTs (4) of any starter in football!  Not only is he being smart with when and where he throws the football, he has been giving us some vintage Russ scrambles to convert big first downs of late.  Wilson has been making teams pay when they bring the heat too as he ranks 7th in PFF against the blitz.  That’s all the Vikings do on defense!  Love this matchup.

Vikings QB Josh Dobbs may be a top 3 story of the entire 2023 NFL Season.  What he has done has been a marvel to watch on now his NINTH team.  He is playing a fun, gunslinger, backyard football style and it’s translating to victories for a very live Minnesota team.  I still think Denver is a tough place to play and his star will shine a lot less in this spot.  At some point, stories like Dobbs come to a halt and it’s going to happen Sunday night.

As good as Russ has shown to be, the real catalyst for this Broncos pick is their run game for me.  RB Javonte Williams finally looks all the way back from his injury and is getting fed over and over.  Sure, some of those carries go right into the center’s backside for 1 yard, but they stick with it.  I see Williams dancing in the endzone Sunday night as Denver celebrates their 4th win in a row.

 

3. Arizona Cardinals (+6 -110) AT Houston Texans – 1 PM – CBS

Kyler Murray is back and boy oh boy did I miss watching that guy run 50 yards left, right, backwards and end up with a 12-yard gain!

As much as I love CJ Stroud and the Texans, I do feel like I’ve bet against them a few times in the Top 5 but I just hate this spot for them.  Houston enters this home game as a touchdown favorite after beating Cincy on the road as a TD dog.  The week before, they had an electric and otherworldly comeback at home vs Tampa Bay in the final minute.  Stroud and co. are the talk of the league and there is even some MVP buzz for the young rookie. 

That’s why you just must take Arizona in this game.

The Cardinals could have rolled over and let the league pat their belly as they plummet all the way to the top pick in the draft.  Instead, they battled tooth and nail last week against Atlanta, ultimately walking off the Falcons with a game winning field goal.  Like I mentioned above, Kyler is back under center, running for his life, and chucking it downfield.  They’re way more dangerous as a dog with Kyler.  In fact, Murray as an underdog is an outstanding 64% ATS in his career.

The Texans’ defense is fine, but they aren’t world beaters and I see Murray, James Conner, Hollywood Brown, and Trey McBride making enough plays to keep this thing tight till the end.

 

2. Seattle Seahawks AT Los Angeles Rams (OVER 46.5 -110) – 4:25 PM – CBS

We bounce out west for a very interesting betting story.

A lot of people I respect in this business are pounding the Rams.  So much so that this line has moved a staggering 3.5 points from opening Hawks -2.5 all the way to LA -1.  As a Rams backer, this spooked me for the Top 5.  However, this over screamed back out and there’s a few reasons why.   

First and foremost, the Rams are the healthiest they’ve been all season long.  Stafford is back under center and they have their full arsenal of wide outs.  Meanwhile, Seattle has been mediocre at best the last several weeks on defense.  In fact, they have fallen to 30th in the league getting off the field on 3rd down.  I expect LA to sustain drives and put points on the board with relative ease.

The Rams may be healthy, but it doesn’t mean that defense is miraculously good now.  QB Geno Smith figured something out last week in getting the ball downfield and into the hands of his playmakers.  I see this being a punch for punch divisional war, 28-24 one way or the other.

 

1. Las Vegas Raiders AT Miami Dolphins (-13.5) – 1 PM – CBS

Death, taxes, the Dolphins at home against a bad team.

There is no organization I’ve been more right on than Miami this year.  It seems almost too easy but the formular remains the same.  Load up on the Phins against bad teams at home, fade city against good teams whether they’re giving or getting points.  Simple enough. 

Tua has been a monster as a favorite in Hard Rock Stadium.  He is 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 7 or more at home.  Dolphins also come into this game off a bye after losing to the Chiefs in Germany.  Down 21-0 in that game, they fought back and had a chance to win that game.  Exciting rookie RB Devon Achane is back this Sunday and there are no injury designations for any of the track stars the Dolphins employ at the skill positions.

The Raiders can’t score no matter who is at QB this season.  Fourth round rookie Aiden O’Connell is a nice story, but he’s been atrocious on 3rd downs converting a paltry 27% on the money down.  I just don’t see any scenario (other than a handful of Miami turnovers) that keeps Vegas in this game.  They famously never hit a team total until Josh McDaniels got fired and only reached 17+ once in the last four games.  They absolutely are going to need to score points if they plan to cover this spread.

Only one interim head coach has ever won his first 3 games, I’m betting Antonio Pierce joins the long list of streaks ending at 2.  Miami is going to motion, misdirect and sprint past the black and silver all day long in South Beach. 

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabile