NFL Week 12 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 11 Record: 2-3 / Overall: 25-28-2 (47.2%)

• We start in Houston where Kyler and the very game Cardinals (+6) picked off CJ Stroud 3 times and although they didn’t win (says a LOT about the Texans), they did cover beautifully.
• The refs made sure our Dolphins (-13.5) didn’t cover in South Beach.  I have never seen so many whistles blown when play was in progress before.  This one hurt.
• The Bills (-7) read was perfect as they smashed New York with the new offensive coordinator and keep their playoff hopes alive and well.
• Rams/Hawks OVER 46.5 had entirely too many field goals and lack of redzone success to hit.  Bad pick.
• Speaking of field goals, the Broncos (-2) are addicted to them.  This loss sucked as they found a way to win the game but a missed 2 pt conversion late doomed us.

 

Week 12

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers AT Indianapolis Colts (OVER 45 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

We’ll begin this week’s Top 5 with what I feel will be a very compelling matchup on the “corner TV” in Indy.

Don’t look now but both teams have playoff dreams dancing in their heads.  The Colts sit only one game out of the wildcard somehow mustering up a .500 record with Gardner Minshew for most the season.  The Bucs meanwhile are one game back of the Saints in the gross NFC South division.  The winner of this game will be on a solid trajectory to controlling their destiny while the loser may have lost the season.  So, this is big.

Tampa’s offense has shown some bright spots of brilliance this year behind still a stud Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and the emergence of RB Rachaad White.  Last week in San Fran, they moved the ball well, just couldn’t find a way into the end zone.  The Colts D isn’t the Niners D so I expect them to break through in this one.

Indy comes into this game fresh off their bye and winners of two in a row.  RB Jonathan Taylor has his legs back under him and has had a solid few weeks.  Give me a 28-23 back and forth battle at Lucas Oil Stadium.

 

4. Kansas City Chiefs AT Las Vegas Raiders (+9 -110) – 4:25 PM – CBS

I bet this game early in the week at +10 and the pros bet it down hard the last day or so.  I still like it at 9.

This is solely a trend play for me.  Mahomes has proven to not be a coverer of 4 or more and he’s especially bad as a touchdown favorite.  Until this trend proves to be broken, I simply must keep riding it.

This all coupled with a Raiders team who is a division rival, at home, and 3-0 ATS under interim coach Antonio Pierce; I love this spot for them.  All world DE Maxx Crosby likely being out for this game does give me some pause but I just don’t see the Chiefs weapons being enough to run them out of the building Sunday afternoon.  Give me Vegas to hang tough in this one throughout.

 

3. New England Patriots AT New York Giants (+4 -112) – 1 PM – FOX

What a gross, disgusting, no good game I’m trying to sell you all on here.

The seasons are lost, and both franchises are already looking at the off-season.  However, the Giants showed me something last week.  Washington is also terrible, but QB Tommy DeVito played fantastic on the road last week to knock half of the country out of their survivor pools.  RB Saquon Barkley has been playing his tail off as well and simply has no other gear other than full-on Barkley. 

On the other sideline, the Patriots STILL haven’t named a starting QB as of this publishing and I’m not sure it will matter much.  This game of slop is all about motivation and even coming off a bye and against a crappy Giants team, I just don’t see how New England can be favored against anyone.  Especially away from Gillette Stadium.

Give me the Giants to keep this close and cover the 4 points.

 

2. Cleveland Browns (+1.5) AT Denver Broncos – 4:05 PM – FOX

The Broncos burned me last week and although this may feel like I’m on tilt betting against them and their hot streak, this is way more about the Browns who come in scorching as well.

Cleveland has had a roller coaster season both on and off the field.  They sit here 7-3, only a half game behind the Ravens, and own the #1 rated defense in the league.  They also have lost their QB Deshaun Watson and star RB Nick Chubb, won games with three different QBs and seem to be counted out in terms of making a real run this season.  But here’s the thing, they’ve proven in this 3-game winning streak (5 of the last 6) that they are going to be in EVERY game with that Defense.

I love the Browns in this spot, on the road against a team in Denver that has drawn a lot of public attention the past month.  They’ve been hanging on by the skin of their teeth as three of their past four wins have been by 2 points or less.  I say their luck runs out against DPOY Myles Garrett, tackling machine Grant Delpit and the best secondary in football.

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars AT Houston Texans (+1.5 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

Alright, I’m proud to announce I’m finally betting on one of my favorite QBs in the Top 5.

Why are the Texans underdogs at home against the Jags?  A team that they have OWNED for over 5 years (10-1 straight up, 8-3 ATS since 2018).  A team in the Texans that have averaged over 485 yds of offense during their 3-game win streak.  CJ Stroud has gone from 200-1 to 20-1 for MVP odds.  The running game has been awoken with Devin Singletary turning the clocks back and breaking out of late.  And on and on and on it goes.

Now, here is the spot in the article where I’d tell you something like, “Exactly, and that’s why we’re all over the Jags!”  But not today.

The Texans are for real and last week’s struggle actually made me even more on board with their immediate future.  They played like crap most of that game yet still found a way to hold the lead and not give it away.  Good teams do that.  Not every day is CJ going to throw for 300, 2 TDs and no INTs so if you can still win against a frisky team like Arizona when he is careless with the ball like that, it impresses me even more than a blow out in some ways.

I’m all aboard the Texans hype train as they put their stamp atop the AFC South Sunday in H-Town.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabile