NFL Week 13 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 12 Record: 2-3 / Overall: 27-31-2 (46.6%)

• Let’s get this out of the way first, the Texans (+1.5) were robbed by some of the worst officiating I’ve ever seen.  With that said, they still had the kick to tie it but unfortunately for us, the crossbar was in the way.
• The Bucs/Colts matchup was the entertaining back and forth game I had hoped for as we climbed above our OVER 45 bet in the 4th.
• The Giants (+4) and Pats played in the disgusting slop fest we expected which saw a New England field goal yanked left late to ensure our victory (and move them into the 3rd overall pick)
• The Broncos are cooking right now, there is no denying that.  This Browns (+1.5) bet was a bad miss by me.
• Just when I want to fall for the Raiders (+9) in terms of the spread, they go and rip my heart out.  How do you go up 14-0, as a 9-pt dog, at home and not cover??  This one hurt.

 

Week 13

5. Indianapolis Colts AT Tennessee Titans (+1 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

Come on, you know what this is by now.  This is a “smash Vrabel as a home dog against a division opponent spot.”

There isn’t much other reasoning you’ll find from me here.  They keep letting this man be a dog at home and he keeps cashing tickets.  Does QB Will Levis scare me?  Sure does.  But the Colts defense isn’t any world beaters.  I actually think he will play really well in this matchup.

RB Jonathan Taylor is out for a few weeks after having surgery (big time bummer as he was just starting to look amazing the past couple games) and Zack Moss steps back in.  The wind will be swirling in this one so the run game will be paramount.  I give Tennessee the edge there.

The Colts need this game and I get that but I’m visualizing the Titans getting up for that moment to tear a rival down in their house. 

 

4. Detroit Lions (-4 -112) AT New Orleans Saints – 1 PM – FOX

I have gone through all the range of emotions on this game.

I bet it immediately at -3 early in the week, fully expecting it to spike towards the 5-6 area.  But here it has landed on -4 and I just do not understand this one. 

The Lions got flat out embarrassed on Thanksgiving for the world to see.  While you were spoiling your dinner on the charcuterie board yet again, waiting for that delicious turkey to simmer; Packers QB Jordan Love was tossing TDs with ease and Jared Goff couldn’t hold onto the football if his life depended on it. 

Your prop parlays with the Lions ML evaporated, the Thanksgiving teasers went down in flames.  You were angry!  They were too…  I can’t even fathom what that building was like in these 10 days between games.  Everyone in the Lions organization must be on edge and ready to run through a brick wall. 

Meanwhile, the Saints are impossible to watch, let alone root for.  They come into this game 2-8-1 ATS and head coach Dennis Allen is ranked in the bottom 5 coaches ATS ALL TIME.  This guy STINKS!  I’ve been a Derek Carr guy in the past but he’s the king of the check down at this point in his career.  The only thing that scares me in this one is if we get one of those wild Taysom Hill performances.  But I’ll take those chances.

Give me Detroit and their 4-1 ATS record on the road righting the ship in NOLA.

 

3. Kansas City Chiefs AT Green Bay Packers (+6 -110) – 8:20 PM – NBC

Patrick Mahomes’ first trip to iconic Lambeau Field, in primetime, and I’m fading him.

I fully expected the Packers to be a very public dog this week.  Extended rest, winners of two in a row (3 of their last 4), including a beatdown of the Lions on Turkey Day.  But the line didn’t really budge.  Half point here or there but there is plenty of money on the Chiefs.  I’ll take my chances on the other side.

The old adage of fading Mahomes over a 4-point favorite holds here.  I know it burned me last week but the Raiders aren’t in the same position Green Bay is.  Hell, the Packers are firmly in the “In the Hunt” graphic we all know and love.  Another sneaky trend on the former MVP, Mahomes is 5-12 ATS in primetime.  I like that!

Jordan Love has been on fire the last month and ranks in the top 5 in a several QB categories.  The young wideouts have been balling and the rapport is clearly growing within the tandems.  The defense has been much better as well and keeping the Pack in games.

I just can’t see the Chiefs pulling away Sunday night in this weather (>30 degrees) and in this venue.  I’ll take the Pack to hang around all night with the world champs.

 

2. Denver Broncos AT Houston Texans (-3 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

Hand up, I’m chasing both of these teams right now…

I fade the Texans, they win, I bet on them, we get our hearts ripped out.  The Broncos are the same thing!  I bet them to win by 2, they win by 1.  I bet against them; they smash the Browns last weekend.  I don’t care, this game screams home team to me and here’s why.

This is a pseudo elimination game for the AFC Wildcard.  The loser falls to 6-6 and will need some help while the winner slides firmly into a dead heat for one of the final spots.  I’m betting a little with my heart here as my guy, CJ Stroud, has been one of the best stories of the year.  WRs Tank Dell and Nico Collins have also lit it up all season.  They absolutely will score on a Broncos defense that has improved but still possesses holes the Texans can expose.  The key for Houston will be stopping the run, if they can limit the Russ scrambles and the Denver backs from getting going, they could win this game by double digits.

I know that Jags loss last week set the team back in narrative but I think this coaching staff/QB combo is different.  This is the game they step to the plate and show the world they can play amongst the AFC’s mediocrity and put their stamp on a playoff opportunity that sits at their fingertips.

 

1. Arizona Cardinals (+6.5 -110) AT Pittsburgh Steelers – 1 PM – CBS

You know I couldn’t go back-to-back weeks without including the Steelers in the Top 5!

Listen, you know the deal, load up on Tomlin as a dog when no one believes in him.  Fade Tomlin as a massive favorite when the world is putting a sharpie marker to the Steelers in their survivor pools.

It’s hard to jump for joy when you click submit on a Cardinals bet but I really do love this spot.  The sharp money has rolled in on Arizona and I just can’t see a scenario where they get their doors blown off by Kenny Pickett.  Now that there is some tape on the new offense, I expect immediate regression from him.

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers are tremendous at getting to the QB but this isn’t a normal guy they’ll be dealing with Sunday.  I keep seeing Kyler Murray and his short legs that move 10,000 miles a minute, breaking contain and getting first downs over and over against a defense whose biggest flaw is their lack of staying gap sound. 

Expect some flukey splash plays from the Cards as they take Pittsburgh to the buzzer in the Steel city.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabile