NFL Week 14 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 13 Record: 4-1 / Overall: 31-32-2 (49.2%)

• We begin in Nashville where the Titans (+1) wouldn’t stop tripping over themselves on special teams, coughed up a big lead, and ultimately lost to the Colts in overtime.  No team in the league is luckier than Indy.
• It was all winning, all the time with the rest of the Top 5.  Starting in New Orleans which saw our Lions (-4) jump out to a 21-0 lead and hanging on for dear life to cover the spread late.
• The Texans (-3) are so much fun to watch for many reasons.  They probably should have won this game more handily but that’s just not their way.  Thanks to a clutch INT in the endzone, the home team hung on to keep their wildcard hopes alive.
• In our #1 bet of the weekend the Cardinals (+6.5) not only covered this ridiculous spread, but they also won the game outright.  Pittsburgh appears to be dead after two atrocious home losses to basement dwelling teams.
• Sunday night we took the home team Packers (+6) who are now one of the scariest squads on the schedule as they beat the defending champs on national TV moving them into the 7 seed.

4-1 week with two big dogs winning outright!  Let’s keep the momentum rolling!

 

Week 14

5. Los Angeles Rams AT Baltimore Ravens (UNDER 39.5 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

Weather alert!  We begin in Baltimore in what is forecasted to be a downpour Sunday afternoon. 

I thought long and hard about taking the Rams with the points all week but I’m switching it up.  The LA run game behind Kyren Williams has been lethal the past couple of games and McVay/Stafford get cooking when they can work the play-action.  The problem here is obviously the weather.  In this type of slop, I can see Lamar, Gus Edwards and the vaunted Ravens defense (league leading 15.6 ppg allowed) grounding this game to a halt for much of the afternoon.

The only drawback I have on taking the Ravens is the great possibility of a Rams backdoor cover so I’m going under here.

 

4. Indianapolis Colts AT Cincinnati Bengals (-2 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

Who else had Jake Browning playing lights out en route to a road win on Monday Night Football as a 9.5-point dog on their bingo card? 

What a performance by the former Washington Huskie in Jacksonville.  He was accurate and made quick, correct decisions all game.  Yes, losing Joe Burrow was a killer to the Bengals playoff hopes but let us not forget that the Bengals are loaded with talent. 

Indy is scorching hot, there is no denying that.  However, if you watch the games, you can see just how lucky they’ve been during this stretch.  They have needed every break to go their way.  The comeback last week to beat a bad Titans team, almost blew a big lead against Tampa at home, won a snoozefest against the awful Patriots, and beat the 1-win Panthers.  Not exactly murderer’s row. 

It’s going to be cold and windy in Cincy Sunday and I’d rather back the team with more playmakers than Gardner Minshew on the road.

 

3. Carolina Panthers (+6 -110) AT New Orleans Saints – 1 PM – FOX

Principle bet time. 

The Saints (mainly Dennis Allen) stink and shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown against anyone.  That’s just the truth.  Dennis Allen is ranked in the 140’s out of 150 coaches ATS of guys with 50 games or more.  Hell, he is 20-45 straight up as a head coach in the NFL!  And you can see why when you watch the Saints play.

Let’s dive a little deeper into the Saints ATS this year.  They are 2-9-1 ATS this season and 0-5 ATS at home.  That’s nuts.  You’d think they would at least luck into a couple home covers when you’re 5-7.  The redzone offense jumps out to me the most.  They’ve shown they can get yards behind Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara and co. in between the 20’s.  But in the red area, they rank 26th in the league. 

Now, I’ve gone this far without mentioning the immense number of Saints injuries.  Stud WR Chris Olave has been sick all week but likely will play, playmaker Taysom Hill is a true game-time decision with zero practice time this week, and defensive captain Cam Heyward is questionable as well.  But the big one, QB Derek Carr, is questionable with a plethora of ailments (Concussion/Shoulder/Ribs).  This guy is a beaten man.  If he doesn’t go, it’s Jameis time, and nothing is more entertaining than watching Winston sling it around without a care in the world.

Carolina has played the Saints tough for the past couple of seasons.  They covered in their first matchup this year and won both games outright in 2022.  Give me the Panthers to hang in there all game and possibly pull off the outright upset.

 

2. Jacksonville Jaguars AT Cleveland Browns (-2.5 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

Poor Jags fans.

There they were, Monday night football, 10-point favorites, with the top seed in the AFC at their fingertips.  On the first play of that Bengals game, leading WR Christian Kirk gets knocked out with a groin injury, and later the big one… QB Trevor Lawrence got rolled up on his ankle.  As he threw his helmet to the ground, obscenities flying from his mouth, the Jags special season appeared to be going down in flames.

Ok that was a bit dramatic writing there. 

Lawrence appears to have dodged a massive injury and is still somehow questionable to play in this game.  Which is wild after watching him barely put any weight on that ankle for what felt like an hour (Can someone get this man a cart please!?!).  Even if he is cleared to play, this is a disaster matchup for Jacksonville.

The Browns defense at home has been all-time great.  They rank #1 in Points allowed, yards allowed, yards per play, and 3rd down percentage while surrounded by their “Dog Pound”.  They’ve proven that it doesn’t matter who is at QB for them either.  Couple all of this with a disgusting weather forecast (39 degrees/13-16 mph winds) and I just can’t see the Florida team with all those injuries finding a way to win this game.

Give me Joe “Elite” Flacco and the Brownies.

 

1. Detroit Lions AT Chicago Bears (+3.5 -120) – 1 PM – FOX

We head up to Chi-town for our #1 pick in this week’s Top 5.

This game is a rematch from just three weeks ago when the Bears blew a 12-point lead with 4 minutes to go in Detroit.  What felt, at the time, as a sleepy Lions team overlooking their crumbling division rival has actually turned into a showing of what these teams are today.  Let me explain.

Chicago’s defense has played well this season, especially of late.  You’d be shocked to know they have the #1 ranked rush defensive in the league giving up only 79 yds per game on the ground.  This is going to loom large in what will be another cold and blustery game on the Week 14 slate. 

Speaking of cold, let’s take a peek at Lions QB Jared Goff’s numbers when the thermometer drops.  Goff is 34-34-2 ATS outdoors overall, not bad.  However, that number dips to 9-14-1 ATS in December/January.  Most troubling for Detroit fans though is that offenses led by Goff are averaging less than 14 points per game when it’s below 50 degrees. 

In the wind, you want to run the ball, but the Bears are stout there so it’s going to have to be Goff making plays through the air to win this game.  If the play-action becomes a non-factor, I simply don’t think he’ll be able to make those plays with the high gusts circling Soldier Field.

This all coupled with Chicago being the 4th best rush offense in the league and the Lions defense coming unraveled lately (over 30 PPG allowed the last month, 2nd worst scoring defense since Week 7) is why I’m backing the Bears this Sunday. 

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabile