NFL Week 15 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 14 Record: 3-2 / Overall: 34-34-2 (50%)

• We kick off in Cincy where the Jake Browning hype train is rolling, and the Bengals (-2) are smack dab in the middle of the playoff hunt.
• Down to NOLA where we saw our dreadful Panthers (+6) dominate this game for long stretches but alas, they are allergic to the endzone.
• One of the worst picks you ever did see comes in Baltimore where my UNDER 39.5 bet was dead in what felt like the first few minutes.  I overrated the weather big time in what ended up being one of the most exciting games of the entire season.
• We took care of business in the top 2 picks of the week, first in Cleveland where Joe “Elite” Flacco is turning the clocks back for the now 8-5 Browns (-2.5).
• Finally, in the #1 spot of the Top 5, the Bears (+3.5) proved they didn’t need those points en route to a dominant 15-point home victory vs. the reeling Lions.

We somehow, someway find ourselves dead even on the season through 70 picks.  Let’s finish strong!

 

Week 15

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5 -115) AT Green Bay Packers – 1 PM – CBS

At first, I wanted no part of this game but as I looked closer at the Week 15 slate, the Bucs kept jumping off the page. 

I should admit, I was a HUGE Baker Mayfield guy when he was at Oklahoma.  Just a true gamer who guys clearly like to battle with.  There’s been more bad than good as a pro but there’s a reason this guy has taken this second chance and put Tampa tied atop the porous NFC South.

On the other sideline, Packers QB Jordan Love came crashing down to Earth for the world to see Monday Night.  In what felt like a showcase opportunity for Love as a TD favorite in New York, ended up being the day the country fell for Tommy DeVito and his directly out of The Sopranos family and agent.  How will he respond?

I’m not exactly sure to be honest which makes this game a bit dicey.  But I want Baker, getting 3.5 points, in what I’m envisioning as a game that goes down to the last seconds in Lambeau.

 

4. Denver Broncos AT Detroit Lions (-4.5 -115) – Saturday – 8:15 PM – NFL Network

Coming in at #4 we have our sole Saturday game as Denver travels into the Motor City.

The Lions have been in a bit of a tailspin the past few weeks.  They’ve lost two of their last three games, both to divisional opponents, and desperately need to right the ship this week at home in primetime.  This is the perfect spot to get right in my opinion.

Denver’s incredible stretch of winning has been awesome to see.  Starting a season 1-5 with a new coach, a beleaguered QB, and after a disastrous 2022 season could end a team before the midway point.  However, to everyone wearing orange and blue’s credit, they’ve responded.  Winners of six of the last seven, the Broncos somehow find themselves only a game behind the Chiefs for the AFC West crown.  So why am I going against them?

It's another one of those “water must find its level” type games just like a couple weeks back when I had the Texans in the Top 5 against Denver.  This is an extremely tough place to play where Lions QB Jared Goff not only thrives, but he’s also the best dome QB ATS in the last 20 years.  The Lions are 8-1 when they give up 20 or less points and Denver isn’t going to light up any scoreboard.

Look for Detroit to get right Saturday night with a comfy TD+ victory at home.

 

3. Chicago Bears (+3 -115) AT Cleveland Browns – 1 PM - FOX

I’m BACK on the Bears in Week 15.

This team has gone from unwatchable, to injured and unsightly, to slightly entertaining, to “is this team going to win out?” 

Winners of three of their last four, Chicago has found something special.  Especially on defense.  I mentioned last week they’ve skyed into the top 7 in all critical defensive categories the last month and this past week may have been their most impressive performance.  Hell, the only game the Bears lost the last month was when they inexplicitly coughed up a 12-point lead with 4 minutes to go against Detroit. 

Cleveland hung on for dear life last week at home against the Jags and come into this game as the 5 seed in the AFC.  It has been an incredible job by head coach Kevin Stefanski who has found a way to win individual games with four different starting quarterbacks.  That has to be a record.  This week they named almost 39-year-old, and Super Bowl champion, Joe Flacco their starting QB for the rest of the year.  It’s a hell of a story.

Unfortunately for Joe and the Browns faithful, I think the surprise factor is done and the Bears defense is going to wreak havoc over this banged up Cleveland offense.  The Browns are down several starting offensive linemen, have two ailing running backs, and I can’t help but imagine Flacco having defenders in his face every time he steps up into a pocket Sunday. 

Give me Chicago to hang in there all game, possibly winning this game outright.

 

2. Dallas Cowboys AT Buffalo Bills (-2 -115) – 4:25 PM – FOX

Spot play time!

The most anticipated matchup of the weekend comes to us from Orchard Park, NY where the red-hot Cowboys come in against a desperate Bills squad.  Buffalo is 7-6 but has had their playoff hopes revived over the past week.  Stuck at the end of six team tie for the wildcard spots, Buffalo NEEDS to win with their lack of tiebreaking potential. 

The Cowboys, rightfully so, are back in the good graces of the national landscape.  They’ve had a great year and are coming off a truly dominating performance against the defending NFC Champion Eagles at home.  At home...  That’s the key phrase.  This team is lethal at home.  But this game isn’t at Jerry World.  I think this is crucial.

The weather is calling for warm temperatures, 83% chance of rain and swirling winds up to 15 mph.  I think this benefits the home team immensely.  QB Dak Prescott is the clubhouse leader for MVP based on betting odds and he deserves to be so.  But this game may be won more in the trenches.  Give me RB James Cook (four straight games with 100+ scrimmage yards) and Josh Allen (631 rushing yds, 7.1 per carry) to muck it up in this one on the ground.

Speaking of Allen, you know we love him in this spot.  As an underdog or favorite of 3 or less, Allen is 21-9-2 ATS and covering at an average of 5 points per game. 

“No one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills!”

 

1. Washington Commanders AT Los Angeles Rams (-6.5 -112) – 4:05 PM – FOX

In what may be one of the most public plays I’ll make all year, give me the Rams at home to smash Washington.

LA suddenly has the look of a team the top seeds do NOT want to see in a playoff matchup.  Coach Sean McVay has his boys healthy and rolling offensively the past three weeks (averaging 34.7 over that span).  RB Kyren Williams has been a revelation this season and don’t get me started on Puka Nacua.  He’s special.  Couple those guys with Cooper Kupp and a healthy, and slingin’ it, Mattew Stafford, they could beat a lot of top teams.

The Commanders are terrible, but they’re especially bad against what the Rams do great.  Washington is the worst defense in preventing 20 yd plays downfield.  The Rams can do that with their eyes closed and I fully expect them to on Sunday afternoon.

Washington is just about to quit on their coaching staff and this season.  Sofi Stadium against the red-hot Rams is the perfect place to put the nail in the coffin.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabil