NFL Week 16 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 15 Record: 4-0-1 / Overall: 38-34-3 (52.8%)

Happy Holidays to all our Bet Karma readers and contributors!  We sadly only have three more weeks of regular season NFL action… Embrace it!

We enter the home stretch on an absolute tear.  11-3-1 the last three weeks and I have no plans on stopping now.  Let’s get to the recap.

• We begin in the Motor City where the Lions (-4.5) beat the breaks off Denver as their luck finally ran out.
• Next, let’s travel to Lambeau where Baker Mayfield and the Bucs (+3.5) played lights out in this one putting them in the driver’s seat in the NFC South. 
• Over to Cleveland where we had a painful Bears (+3) push.  Chicago dominated most of this game but in typical Bears fashion, they coughed up the lead late in the 4th and saw the easiest Hail Mary tip right into a Browns defender’s hands from Darnell Mooney’s lap.
• At #2 we saw our Bills (-2) out plan, out run, and out muscle the Cowboys with one of their most dominating performances of the season.  Buffalo is coming…
• Finally, in the #1 spot of the Top 5, the Rams (+6.5) “played with their food” in the 4th quarter and took what was a comfy win to a bit of a scare.  Thankfully for us, the coach on the other sideline was Ron Rivera who simply doesn’t know how to lead a team in the year 2023.

 

Week 16

5. Seattle Seahawks AT Tennessee Titans (+3.5 -112) – 1 PM – CBS

If I’m not betting Tomlin as a home dog, you had to know I was going to back Vrabel.  I can’t help myself.

But I love this spot for the Titans.  Coming off a demoralizing overtime loss to Houston last week, Tennessee stays in Nashville to face the Seahawks.  Seattle saved their season Monday night against the reeling Eagles and QB Geno Smith will be back for this one.  The public is ALL OVER the Hawks as I’m sure all of you saw coming from a mile away.

Of note, QB Will Levis is questionable for this one and it may be Tannehill.  That doesn’t scare me, Tannehill is a veteran who has been itching to get another start and if it is him, the Hawks defense is banged up and ranks in the bottom 8 in most statistical categories.  He won’t be a major drop-off.

The Titans are getting 3.5 against a West coast team coming East for 1 PM kickoff, on a short week, after an emotional upset win on Monday Night Football, AND the whole world is on the Hawks?  Yeah, I LOVE Vrabel here. 

 

4. Cleveland Browns AT Houston Texans (+3 -115) – 1 PM – CBS

A bit of a principle bet here with the home dog.

Houston, especially head coach DeMeco Ryans, has had a tremendous season.  They are firmly in the wild card hunt with a chance at a division crown.  This was a team who was the dreck of the league the past few years.  Not only that, but they’ve had to deal with an incredible number of injuries to their skill guys.

Rookie of the year QB CJ Stroud remains out with a concussion as is stud WR Tank Dell who broke his leg a couple weeks back.  WR Nico Collins is questionable but likely to return and the run game is healthy.  Backup QB Case Keenum did just enough to win in overtime, on the road, against a division rival last week.  Why not one more?

I’m betting Houston can hang around with a Browns team who although their defense is their calling card this season, they’ve been exponentially worse on the road.  QB Joe Flacco is one of the stories of the season and it’s been a blast to watch him launch that spiral again but the Texans are hungry.  They’re also beasts against winning squads going 4-1 this year vs teams with a winning record.  I can easily see Houston winning this game outright.

 

3. Dallas Cowboys (+2 -110) AT Miami Dolphins – 4:25 PM – FOX

This is the “Who is a Fraud” game of the weekend.

These two teams have mirrored each other all season long.  Smash the bad teams, especially at home, lose to the great teams.  Something has to give.

The Dolphins have everything at their fingertips in terms of the #1 seed in the AFC.  With the Ravens 6-point dogs on the road in San Fran, this is their opportunity to get even with them as their matchup looms next week.  I see them coming up small but for a very specific reason.

Obviously, we love good teams after getting embarrassed for the world to see.  That was Dallas last week in Buffalo.  They likely had a very tough week of self-reflection and will be geared up for this one.  In fact, the Cowboys have covered 12 of their last 13 games coming off a loss.  But specifically, the Cowboys are good at what the Dolphins can’t defend and that is protecting Tua against an elite pass rush.

WR Tyreek Hill will be returning this game and Jalen Waddle had a great game last week, but Dallas doesn’t let the wideouts beat them.  They haven’t let up 150 yards to one receiver since 2021 and have allowed the 4th fewest passing yards per game this year (ESPN).  I see this game being a back-and-forth tilt where Tua is going to have to move through his progressions to win.  The Dolphins offensive line has been trucking teams in the run game but if it gets into shootout territory, they are one of the bottom teams in pass blocking.

Look for Micah Parsons to total 2.5 sacks as this high total game is won with defense late and the Cowboys on top.

 

2. Detroit Lions AT Minnesota Vikings (+3 -112) – 1 PM – FOX

We’ve been reading the Lions well all year and here is a spot where I love the other side.

Minnesota is firmly in the wildcard race with a few weeks to play and that is largely because of DC Brian Flores’ defense.  These boys have been flying around for the majority of the season and very rarely give up explosive plays.  When Detroit really gets rolling it’s because they’re taking the top off and I don’t see that happening on Sunday.

QB Nick Mullens had himself a very strong game last week in Cincy.  Unfortunately for Minnesota, redzone turnovers cost them dearly and they lost in overtime.  My takeaway however was that Mullens is a tremendous upgrade from Josh Dobbs and with the Vikings offense healthy on the outside, the weapons can flourish.  Also, RB Ty Chandler ran the ball extremely well last week and has taken charge of that job.  The Lions are susceptible to a good run game.

I know, I know, we love Jared Goff in a dome.  But this is going to be a very tight divisional battle between two teams who need to win.  The Vikings come into this one as underdog masters going 5-1-1 ATS this season as a dog including five straight.  I believe the Lions may be looking ahead a little at their big Cowboys matchup next week and slip up here on the road.

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars AT Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1 -110) – 4:05 PM – CBS

I’m BACK on Baker in Week 16.

The Bucs are flying high right now, winners of three in a row and improving each game.  Mayfield has been, dare I say, elite the past few games and I don’t expect that to change at home in this matchup vs a reeling Jags team (losers of three in a row).

It looks like QB Trevor Lawrence will be cleared to play in this one but that doesn’t give me pause.  He’s been hobbled a majority of the season and has toughed it out beautifully, but the Bucs defense is starting to smell themselves.  They’ve always had the ‘dudes’ and Todd Bowles has them on fire right now.

Tampa’s run defense has been the catalyst where they rank 9th in the league.  On the other side, the Jags simply can’t get going on the ground the past month averaging a paltry 71.3 yards per game.  Lawrence is going to have to make the plays through the air to hang with Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rachaad White.  White in particular has been on a tear both rushing and receiving out of the backfield totaling over 100 yards from scrimmage in four straight games.

The Bucs have the NFC South and a home playoff game right at their fingertips and jump to a 75% chance to take the division crown with a win Sunday at home.  Give me Baker to keep the train rolling.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabile