NFL Week 17 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 16 Record: 2-2-1 / Overall: 40-36-4 (52.8%)

• Let’s start with the worst bet of the weekend in Houston (+3).  I was dead wrong that Case Keenum could hang with this miraculous Joe Flacco story.
• Over to Nashville where Vrabel and the Titans (+3.5) kept being the dog we know and love hanging on for a 0.5-point cover against Seattle.
• In Minnesota, we got Mullins’d.  The Vikings (+3) threw it all over the Lions suspect defense but, in the end, the turnovers proved too much to overcome. 
• Down to South Beach where the Dolphins and Cowboys (+2) played in a playoff type atmosphere that saw a ton of big plays and even more killer mistakes.  We’ll take our push and move forward.
• Finally, in the #1 spot of the Top 5, the Bucs (+1) may have been our easiest win of the year as they wiped the floor with the Jags who are only a couple of weeks away from losing to the Browns in the wildcard round.

 

Week 17

5. Tennessee Titans AT Houston Texans (OVER 44 -108) – 1 PM – CBS

You know it’s a tough spread week when I go with two overs in the Top 5, the first of which in the Oiler’s jersey battle.

These two teams played each other just a couple of weeks ago to an overtime snoozer but I believe this will be opened up.  The Texans’ defense hasn’t played well of late while Tennessee knows this is likely the last run for RB Derrick Henry and possibly head coach Mike Vrabel.  QB Will Levis is back for this one and will look to continue the momentum in his rookie season.

This game will also have the welcome return of rookie of the year CJ Stroud under center for the Texans.  I expect him to be rearing to go for this one as Houston can still make the playoffs in his first season.  Look for the home team to touch 30 in this one as this game cruises over the number.

 

4. Las Vegas Raiders AT Indianapolis Colts (-4 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

Up to Indy in what I feel is the PERFECT spot to fade the public.

Interim coach Antonio Pierce and the Raiders have been one of the better stories in the 2nd half of this NFL year and they’re coming into this matchup off an incredible upset victory in Kansas City last week.  But let’s look closer at that win.

Vegas QB Aiden O’Connell was atrocious and never completed a pass in the 2nd half of that game.  That’s truly insane!  In fact, O’Connell has been the worst road starting QB in the league this season completing just 56% of his passes for 190.3 yds a game, 1 TD to 4 INT and a 59.5 passer rating.  I can’t back that.

The Raiders defense has been thriving off of turnovers which are impossible to handicap, and as I’ve said before, QB Gardner Minshew is a different player at home.  Stud head coach Shane Steichen will have his boys ready for this one and I see the Colts winning by a couple scores.

 

3. Los Angeles Chargers (+4 -120) AT Denver Broncos – 4:25 PM – CBS

What an incredibly awkward week it’s been in the Rocky’s.

You know the story by now, but QB Russell Wilson was benched due to contract issues…I mean because Sean Payton is trying to win games.  He said that.  I’m not going to sit here and tell you Russ has been amazing this season but that’s a crock.  Former Patriot Jarrett Stidham takes over for Denver and I don’t expect much.

The Chargers have been a must fade pretty much the whole year, but they were impressive in spurts last week against Buffalo.  Sure, the Bills were able to overcome a sloppy start and still won the game, but QB Easton Stick got it going with his legs a bit and saw things open up downfield.  I’m also a huge proponent in teams battling for their interim coach in the first couple of weeks.

Give me LA to hang around all game with Stidham in what will likely be an extremely unwatchable contest.

 

2. Atlanta Falcons AT Chicago Bears (-2.5 -120) – 1 PM – FOX

This one is a mix of anti-Falcons on the road and pro-Bears defense playing incredibly well of late.

Let’s start with Atlanta.  My only pause here is I believe Arthur Smith is coaching for his job.  They simply can’t run this back if they’re not in the mix for the division until the bitter end.  The issue is… they kind of stink.  They just do.  They may not have stunk had they played Taylor Heinicke all season, but they didn’t and now I feel it’s too late for the Dirty Birds.

Chicago has been one of my favorite teams to back the last month of the year and it’s mainly because of their defense.  Especially the run D.  Guess what Atlanta wants to do?  Run the ball.  I don’t see them being able to do that on this Bears front 7. 

For Justin Fields, these last two games are everything.  He is auditioning for his current front office as well as half of the league as well.  The reality for him is that the Bears are likely to have the #1 pick (Nice trade Panthers!) and the thought as of now is they will stay there and draft former Heisman trophy winner Caleb Williams.  I’m fully convinced Fields can still start in this league and in what may be his last game at Soldier Field, he is going to ball out.

 

1. Los Angeles Rams AT New York Giants (OVER 43.5 -110) – 1 PM – FOX

The hottest team in football travels to MetLife to take on the Giants in this week’s #1 pick in the Top 5.

All week I stared at this Rams line.  It jumped all over the place from as low as -4 to as high as -6.5.  I just don’t love all of the movement and I do worry about water finding its level a little for Los Angeles in this game.  One thing I know for sure, however, is they’re going to score a bunch of points.

The Eagles put up 35 points on New York with relative ease in their offensive “get right” game on Christmas and the Rams are playing much better than Philly.  QB Matthew Stafford looks like he’s found the “Fountain of Youth”, and his plethora of weapons are all healthy and unstoppable at the moment.

The reason I’m going with the over instead of LA rests on one guy and that’s QB Tyrod Taylor.  Don’t get me wrong, the ‘Tommy Cutlets’ era was a ton of fun but there is no doubt that Taylor gives the G-Men a better chance at victory.  With the Rams D possibly a little sleepy coming East for a 1 PM game, this may be a bit back and forth early. 

Points!  Points!  Points!

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabile