NFL Week 18 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 17 Record: 2-3 / Overall: 42-39-4 (51.9%)

• Let’s begin with another #1 pick hit in the Top 5.  The Giants/Rams (OVER 43.5) was one of the most entertaining games of the weekend and Tyrod made sure we got the points we needed with plenty of time to spare.
• Unfortunately, our other O/U bet crashed and burned in Houston.  The Texans/Colts (OVER 44) had no shot as the home team’s defense showed their teeth all afternoon.
• No worse feeling than when you have the right side for 58 minutes only to see the dog backdoor you on 4th and goal.  That’s exactly what happened to the Colts (+4).  Brutal stuff.
• The Bears (-2.5), more on them later, continued to prove Vegas wrong as they handled Atlanta at home.  Chicago is absolutely the team you do NOT want to play right now.
• I want to apologize to all who followed and had to watch that dreadful Chargers (+4) vs. Broncos game.  We had a shot late in the 4th but unlike the Raiders, LA decided to kick the field goal down 10 on 2nd down instead of providing us with a delightful cover.

Quick note about Week 18…. It’s brutal.  Ha! 

There will be backups and 3rd stringers galore so make sure you research everything.  Also of note, just because a team MUST win to make the playoffs/keep hopes alive, doesn’t mean they will.  In fact, trends tell you it’s the other way around.  Just something to keep in mind.

 

Week 18

5. Minnesota Vikings AT Detroit Lions (-3.5 -108) – 1 PM – FOX

What a tumultuous week it has been for the 2023-24 NFC North champs.

Coming off one of the most puzzling endings in league history last week in Dallas, the Lions finish off their tremendous season at home vs a desperate Vikings squad.  All week I went back and forth on this game.  But remember what I said above, just because a team needs to win and the other is indifferent, doesn’t mean they will.

Can you imagine how incensed the Lions facility was the past 7 days?  I picture Dan Campbell just pacing in his office, face as red as the sun, tossing and turning at night wondering how in the hell the refs took that win away from them last Saturday.  He’s not going to lay down in this game, especially with an outside chance at the two seed still available.

With the Vikings, I mean, they sure looked like they quit last Sunday night in a blowout loss to the Packers, at home, with the world watching.  The quarterback situation is untenable at this point and the defense has been figured out. 

TE Sam LaPorta is looking to join RB Jahmyr Gibbs as the only team in history to have two rookies with 10 touchdowns (add it to my card) and the Lions have a chance to get to 12 wins for only the 2nd time in franchise history.  Give me Detroit.

 

4. Houston Texans AT Indianapolis Colts (OVER 47.5 -110) – Saturday – 8:15 PM – ABC

We have ourselves a playoff game one week early on Saturday night.

This is simple for these two AFC South rivals, win and you’re in the playoffs.  I expect fireworks in Indy.  Texans QB CJ Stroud is looking to put a stamp on his “Rookie of the Year” season while Colts head coach Shane Steichen finishes up what has been a ‘miracle worker’ type first year in Indy. 

These two teams played all the way back in Week 2, a Colts 31-20 win in Houston.  Stroud has only improved since then and having played last game after a few weeks injured I see him lighting it up.  The Colts defense has regressed mightily of late, and I don’t think they’ll be able to keep the Texans at bay.  However, we know QB Gardner Minshew is the ultimate gamer and won’t go down without a fight.  The offense is fully healthy and although the Texans have a stiff run D, I see Jonathan Taylor dancing in the end zone Saturday night.

The over is 7-1 in Colts home games with an average of 52 points per game.  We’ll get to our number easily in this one.

 

3. New York Jets AT New England Patriots (-2 -115) – 1 PM – FOX

If this really is the last time we’ll see the best head coach to ever do it don that cut-off Pats hoodie, there is no greater way to go out than ANOTHER win against the Jets in Gillette Stadium.

Two seasons to throw in the toilet and flush repeatedly will mercifully come to an end in Foxborough Sunday afternoon.  This Jets year, full of one step forward 10 steps back, was doomed on the 5th play from scrimmage back in Week 1 when Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles snapped and curled up his leg.  For New England, it’s a complete wash of a season that I’m sure many fans hope they finish with one more L to ensure a top 3 pick in the draft. 

I don’t care if you’ve heard this before, it’s too insane to not emphasize.  Bill Belichick has owned the Jets to such an extent it feels fake.  How about 15 wins in a row vs. New York.  Even more impressive would be 23-2 over the past 25 games and the only two losses for the Patriots were in overtime!  If this is truly it…you just KNOW Bill wants to finish this the only way he knows how.  By beating the New York Jets (by 3 or more).

 

2. Chicago Bears (+3 -115) AT Green Bay Packers – 4:25 PM – CBS

Of course I’m back on my Bears for the final time of the season! 

5-2 straight up the past couple of months, I’m not sure there’s been a team who has padded our wallets more than Chicago.  They have that 2022-23 Detroit Lions feel to them.  Started the season horrendously and came on like gangbusters at the end.  This is absolutely a team you do NOT want to play right now, especially when you need to win to get in the playoffs like Green Bay does.

This is the Bears Super Bowl (as sad as that sounds).  Not only that but the fans have been all aboard the “Keep Fields” train of late and he’s been outstanding.  The entire offense has.  In fact, the past two weeks they’ve ranked top 4 in points per game, 2nd in total yards and 1st in the NFL in rush yards.  They have also had 24 “Big Plays” (rushes of 10+ yards and passes of 20+) during that span proving they can beat you in a number of ways right now.

Packers QB Jordan Love has had an incredible 1st year as a starter making other NFC North fans question what deal with the devil the Packers made to never have a QB issue in the past 30 years.  But I see heartache in Week 18 for the young gunslinger.  Remember what I said earlier, just because you have to win doesn’t mean you will.  In fact, teams that are in must win situations in the final week of the season cover only 39% of the time against teams who have no motivation.

Chicago has a reason however, and that is to ensure their hated rivals don’t make the playoffs.  JUST like Detroit did this time last year to the very same Packers team.

 

1. Buffalo Bills (-2.5 -120) AT Miami Dolphins – 8:20 PM – NBC

Let me take you back to Week 4. 

Dolphins AT Bills.  Miami, undefeated and coming off their 50-point drubbing against the Broncos.  You pulled up David’s Top 5 and scoffed at my Bills pick at #1.  Well, we won that day, by four touchdowns, and I’m running back the same play in Week 18.

With this game being the very last of the league’s season, we will be well aware of the stakes.  The Bills can win the AFC East AND get the #2 seed with a win.  They can also miss the playoffs altogether with a loss coupled with Steelers AND Jaguar wins.  It is perfect that this topsy-turvy Buffalo season has outcomes on such wild ends of the spectrum.  I believe in Josh Allen and the boys.

Miami has had a great season; however, they do show those “fraud” characteristics you see every year in the NFL.  Outside of the Cowboys win/cover at home which they covered a closing line of -1.5 by the hook, the Dolphins are 0-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season.  I’m a proponent of you can only play who is on your schedule but that doesn’t exactly spark confidence in this huge matchup if I’m a Phins fan.  More importantly, Miami’s roster is being held together with duct tape right now with injuries to key players on both sides of the ball.  

Buffalo has been essentially playing playoff games for over a month now, winning four in a row, and has the feel of a team who is about to make a deep run.  Give me the Bills to finish their story going from 6-6 to division winners Sunday night.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabile