Wildcard Weekend - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 18 Record: 2-3 / Overall: 44-42-4 (51.2%)

• We begin in Week 18’s de facto Playoff Game in Indy.  The Texans and Colts (OVER 47.5) played an extremely tense and more defensive orientated game than I thought.
• We got in the win column with the Lions (-3.5) who as expected didn’t let off the gas at all and are entering the playoffs with the swagger needed to make a run.
• Over to snowy New England for a gross, never had a shot, Pats (-2) bet.  It’s fitting that Bill Belichick’s last game was a loss against the team he dominated for decades.
• Jordan Love is playing lights out and would not let his Packers be denied a playoff spot.  The Bears (+3) enter what will be a franchise altering off-season after some inspiring play late in the year.
• Thank God for the Sunday night chaser as the Bills (-2.5) won the AFC East after what appeared to be insurmountable odds just 6 weeks ago. 

We made it!  The regular season is over, and we finished JUST above .500 on the year.  Hope everyone enjoyed the articles, but we don’t stop here.  The Top 5 will continue throughout the post-season and I don’t know if I remember a playoff bracket more difficult to predict.  Let’s get it!

 

Wildcard Weekend

5. Cleveland Browns (-2 -112) AT Houston Texans – Saturday – 4:30 PM – NBC

This may be a principle bet in the first game of the weekend.

A few weeks ago, amid this amazing Flacco run, I told myself that I didn’t care who it was against and what the line was… I was betting the Browns against the AFC South winner.  Now, at the time, I thought it would be Jacksonville or maybe even Indy.  But it’s my beloved Texans and rookie sensation CJ Stroud!  Ugh.  I’m still backing Cleveland.

Here’s the thing, as you do your research this week, you’ll see the Browns defense has struggled mightily on the road this year.  You’ll also see that the Browns smashing Houston in their building came without Stroud on the other sideline just three weeks ago.  All of this is true.  However, this is the playoffs and the very first playoff game (of many) for the young signal caller Stroud.  Most times (more on this later) I’m absolutely backing the veteran against the rookie in this spot. 

But it really does come down to the defense for me.  Cleveland is LOADED with playmakers on that side of the ball and although Stroud has made so few mistakes this year at home, I keep envisioning a tough turnover late in this one to seal it for the road Brownies.  Feed me Flacco AT Baltimore!

 

4. Green Bay Packers (+7 -108) AT Dallas Cowboys – Sunday – 4:25 PM – FOX

And just like that, I’m going against what I said above in pick #4 of the Top 5.

Yes, Packers QB Jordan Love is not a rookie, but this is his first full season.  A full season that I must say, has shocked me beyond belief.  This kid is the real deal.  I feel for Packers fans that they had to wait all of ZERO seasons to go from future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers to another QB destined for pro bowls galore. 

Head coach Matt LaFleur has been tremendous during the Packers run to the 7 seed.  They have gotten healthier by the week and offensively have lethal weapons at Love’s disposal.  WR Jayden Reed jumps off the tape immediately on pretty much every route under the sun.  Romeo Doubs has been a dependable possession receiver all year and speedster Christian Watson is hopeful to return Sunday.  In the backfield, RB Aaron Jones looks like he’s 3 years younger the last month leading the league in rushing over that time.  These boys are going to score.

The Cowboys admittedly are a dynamo at home this season and QB Dak Prescott will garner MVP votes in what has been a tremendous season for #4.  They’re going to score too (more on that later as well) but I’ll never feel that we’re ever dead getting a full 7 points here. 

Everyone is lauding the Lions/Rams as the game of the weekend, and it will be fantastic, but give me this one to arguably be the most fun with the Packers covering the spread.

 

3. Philadelphia Eagles AT Tampa Bay Buccaneers (UNDER 43.5 -110) – Monday – 8 PM – ESPN

With the fun playoff games, we also have the agonizing.

Make no mistake about it, Monday night we will all be treated to what will equate to watching paint dry.

The Eagles are in a tailspin, actually tailspin might not be strong enough a word for what is going on with the reigning NFC Champions.  The defense stinks, the offense is inept, the QB and top WR are hurt, the running game gets abandoned, and on and on it goes. 

On the other side, the Bucs aren’t exactly a world beater offense.  QB Baker Mayfield has come crashing down to Earth of late and is nursing multiple injuries.  The run game has improved but it’s still middle to bottom of the league.  I mean, they didn’t score a TD last week in Carolina to win the division in what felt more like a mid-June blowout MLB game 9-0.  Yuck.

Couple all of this with the weather forecast calling for thunderstorms and possible torrential rainfall.  I wish we didn’t have to watch this one but since we must, I’m on the under as I can’t see a scenario where both teams get to the 20’s.

 

2. Miami Dolphins AT Kansas City Chiefs (UNDER 43.5 -112) – Saturday – 8:15 PM – Peacock

Another under?!?!  What am I doing to you all??

If you live under a rock, that’s the only way you don’t know that it’s supposed to be an all time freezing game in Arrowhead Saturday night.  Right now, it’s expected to be -2 degrees with a wind chill of -20.  If you’re attending this game, God Bless you…

I LOVED KC all week but apparently all the big money players did as well, and the line grew from -3 all the way to -4.5.  Normally I wouldn’t be spooked too badly but Mahomes over a field goal is not a long-term winning battle, so I’ll abstain.  With that said, I’ve never wavered on this under.  The Chiefs offensive woes are well documented.  They have one WR in Rashee Rice who strikes any fear and DB Jalen Ramsey will blanket him.  TE Travis Kelce has had his worst year since he was a rookie and will be bracketed all game long.  Who is going to score all the points?  Mahomes will find a way I’m sure, but I don’t see any chance they all of a sudden go off for the first time all year in this one.

Man, the Dolphins are so unlucky.  I mean, you can’t lose that Monday night game to Tennessee as a billion-point favorite and not expect it to bite you.  Losing a division in which you were -400 to win just 6 weeks ago is painful and I feel for their fans.  Their prize?  A sub-zero tilt with the defending champs.  QB Tua Tagovailoa has never played in a game less than 30 degrees and has horrendous splits and trends against winning teams as it is.  Not only that, but no playoff team is more ravaged by injuries than the Phins.  They absolutely NEED RB Raheem Mostert and WR Jaylen Waddle to suit up for this one to have a shot. 

This will be a tough watch seeing these teams navigate not being able to feel their limbs as we sit on our couches with a blanket over top.  16-13 somebody.  Write it down.

 

1. Green Bay Packers AT Dallas Cowboys (OVER 50.5 -112) – Sunday – 4:25 PM – FOX

Ok, ok, let’s have some FUN at #1!

I said it all in my Packers +7 write-up, but I LOVE this over Sunday afternoon at Jerry’s World.  The Packers have scored 27 or more in four of their last seven games including 33+ in three of them.  Jordan Love ranks 2nd in the league with 32 TD passes and the play calling has improved immensely as the season wore on.  On the defensive side, they’ve played well the past two weeks (vs Nick Mullins and Justin Fields) but they’re not a very good unit altogether.  They will absolutely give up points to the vaunted Dallas offense.

Speaking of the Cowboys, they lead the league in points per game (29.9) and are a total juggernaut at home averaging a whopping 37.4 ppg.  When they get rolling on the field with the Star at midfield they seldom can be stopped.  QB Dak Prescott led the league this season with 36 TD passes and WR Ceedee Lamb took home the receptions title with 135.  Lamb also came in just behind Tyreek Hill with 1,749 yards on the year.  Massive season for him.

In the run game, Packers RB Aaron Jones, as I mentioned above, has been on tear with 358 yards in the past three weeks.  The Cowboys run game kinda stinks, but they haven’t needed it with Dak spreading it around to his plethora of weapons.  Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Jake Ferguson, and Tony Pollard all have over 50 catches on the year and the play calling has been exquisite for most of the season.

I don’t see any scenario where this isn’t a back-and-forth barnburner and I’ll double down that this will be the game of the weekend.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabil