Divisional Weekend - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

Become a member of Bet Karma Premium today!  Our Premium services are incredible and a true must have for any daily gambler.  From Props to Futures to Daily Fantasy, we'll guide you through everything you need start to finish.  Get started for under $1 a day right now!

 

Previously on "David's Top 5"

Wildcard Weekend Record: 4-1 / Overall: 48-43-4 (52.8%)

• We kicked off the playoffs with a disgusting and downright loathsome Browns (-2) pick.  The Texans did whatever they wanted as Joe Flacco’s carriage turned into a pumpkin Saturday afternoon.
• It was all winning, all the time after that beginning under the lights at Arrowhead.  The Chiefs/Dolphins (UNDER 43.5) was hard to watch but glorious all the same.  KC’s defense dominated and Tua proved he simply cannot play good football when the temperature reaches freezing.
• Sunday we were treated to the best-case scenario in my Packers/Cowboys double dip.  Green Bay (+7) got off to an incredible 27-0 lead in Jerry’s World and I started to think they would get our #1 Pick (OVER 50.5) by themselves.  Easy peasy double winner.
• Monday Night Football saw the exclamation point put on a disastrous two months for the defending NFC champion Eagles.  Philly quit on their city this year but thankfully for us their offense, and some crucial drops by the Bucs receivers, made sure this (UNDER 43.5) was another winner to cap off a delightful 4-1 start to the playoffs.

 

Divisional Weekend

5. Kansas City Chiefs AT Buffalo Bills (-2.5 -120) – Sunday – 6:30 PM – CBS

We begin the Top 5 in the game of the weekend with the Bills Mafia in Orchard Park.

I know, I know… Mahomes under a 3-point dog is an auto bet.  The trends all back KC and more importantly the Bills are beyond banged up in the defensive back 7, but this is a gut feel bet.

QB Josh Allen has had yet another fantastic season.  Last week, against Pittsburgh, he simply couldn’t be stopped both through the air and with his legs.  Allen has this look to him that he will not be denied.  Most jarring to me last week was how smart he was.  Josh Allen is a lot of things, but smart with the football for the entirety of a 60-minute football game is not one of them.  I feel like he knows the only way the Bills can win it all this year is if he doesn’t turn it over.

The Chiefs looked amazing last week in the fridged confines of their own backyard.  But this is going to be a totally different atmosphere at Highmark Stadium Sunday evening.  Not only that but this is, remarkably so, Patrick Mahomes’ FIRST road playoff game of his career.  And he is going into it with the worst collection of “weapons” he’s ever had.  If he finds a way to win this one, we are firmly in Tom Brady land in terms of his trajectory even more than we already were.

Give me Buffalo, and their opportunistic defense (30 takeaways – 2nd in the league) to turn Mahomes’ over twice in a tough nosed thriller to punch their ticket to the AFC Title game.

 

4. Houston Texans AT Baltimore Ravens (OVER 43.5 -112) – Saturday – 4:30 PM – ESPN

This is a matchup where we’re going to know exactly how it’ll shake out by the midway point of the 1st quarter.

Baltimore has proven they’re the best team in football this season with marquee wins over the following playoff teams: Browns, Rams, Lions, Dolphins, 49ers, AND these Houston Texans.  Now that Texans game was Week 1, rookie sensation QB CJ Stroud’s first ever NFL game.  “Welcome to the league kid!  Here’s the best defense in football!”  Since that time, all Stroud has done is light the world on fire with his efficiency, exquisite mechanics, and of course that rocket right arm.

I love watching the Texans play football and I think, if everything lines up perfectly, they could mirror what their rival Titans did back in 2020 the last time Baltimore was the #1 seed (Tennessee 16-point winners that night).  But I’m going to refrain from going down that path because this Ravens team feels more complete.

QB Lamar Jackon is the MVP just like he was back in 2020.  But his game has matured, he takes everything that is given to him more now than ever while still being able to break down any defender in the open field.  He’s thrown for almost 1,000 more yards than four years ago, has 2 less INTs, been sacked 8 less times, and has a QB rating of 102.7 (up from 99.3 in 2020).  My point is, he’s calmer and more dangerous than ever.

I see this game going back and forth early as points come in bunches with the Ravens possibly pulling away late, but not until this over soars past the 43.5 we need.

 

3. Green Bay Packers AT San Francisco 49ers (-9.5 -112) – Saturday – 8:15 PM – FOX

We begin this week’s “double-dip” with the odds-on favorite to win it all, the San Francisco 49ers.

The Niners have been resting for almost three weeks now wrapping up the 1 seed in Week 17.  These boys are going to be entering the national stage Saturday night, foaming at the mouth to prove they are the very best in the game.  San Fran is so immensely loaded as a roster and come into this one with no real significant injuries to navigate. 

Green Bay, meanwhile, looked unstoppable last week as they handed the best home team this season an embarrassing loss that looked somehow worse than the final box score.  QB Jordan Love has been unstoppable and head coach Matt LaFleur is calling impeccable offensive football right now. 

With that said, the Packers defense is certainly no world beaters and unfortunately for them, the team in red has playmakers galore.  I mean RB Christian McCaffery is an astounding -340 to score an anytime TD Saturday!  That’s absurd (still might bet it…). 

San Fran head coach Kyle Shanahan is highly regarded as one of, if not the best coach in the NFC, and he owns LaFleur and the Packers franchise.  The Niners also dominate the divisional round, winning their past five home playoff games, including two of them against these Green Bay Packers.  Four of those five wins coming by 14+ points as well.

We’re in for a relative bloodbath Saturday night which will see Love and the Packers score some points but nowhere near enough to keep this game within two scores as the past repeats itself in Levi’s Stadium.

 

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers AT Detroit Lions (-6 -112) – Sunday – 3 PM – NBC

For the first time since 1991 (!!!) the Detroit Lions are in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

The Lions have taken over the crown as America’s favorite team this season and the chatter is at fever pitch after solidifying a home playoff win last week against LA.  QB Jared Goff and the waves of skill players Detroit boasts made that game look like a blowout early only to have to make a huge stop late in the 4th to expunge former Lion great Matthew Stafford by 1 point.

Is it troublesome that the Lions couldn’t put their foot on the throat of a lesser opponent last week?  Sure.  But this bet is almost more about the Bucs than anything.

Here’s the thing, former #1 overall pick Baker Mayfield and blitzing genius Todd Bowles deserve a lot of credit for winning their hapless division and a playoff home game.  However, and I can’t stress this enough, the Eagles STINK!  I honestly think they would have had trouble beating Carolina last week let alone a road playoff game against a veteran defense.  The Lions ain’t the Eagles and this game is at Ford Field.

I’m not sure there is a playoff atmosphere I’d love to take a portal too more than Detroit last Sunday.  It’s going to be even more raucous this week. 

I see Detroit mixing up their offense like they always do with a steady dose of the run game behind their “Thunder and Lightning” package of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs which will get Goff’s lethal play-action game in motion. 

Baker is banged up but an all-time gamer.  However, if the Lions are going to lose at home, it will have to be in a shootout type game and the Bucs won’t be able to keep up in this spot.

 

1. Green Bay Packers AT San Francisco 49ers (OVER 50.5 -112) – Saturday – 8:15 PM – FOX

We’re going back to the well this week with a total in the #1 spot.

I absolutely LOVE this over Saturday night.  Like I mentioned in my Niners (-9.5) write-up, these offenses can light up the scoreboard.  It will mirror the Seahawks/49ers game last year when Geno Smith was able to make some plays early only to watch San Fran pile on a young and leaky defense in their home stadium.

We know Shanahan is going to be in his play calling bag with so much time to prepare.  I see them scoring on their first drive with scripted plays only “Ask Madden” on rookie mode could produce.  No one is better at getting everyone to eat than Shanahan.  McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will all see the endzone Saturday night with Jordan Love sneaking in some backdoor garbage as we watch this game sail into the 60’s.

 

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabile