Championship Weekend - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Playoff Record: 6-4 / Overall: 50-46-4 (52.1%)

• We start the recap with our nailbiter victory (OVER 43.5) in the Ravens/Texans game.  Baltimore dominated the upstart Texans and thank goodness we got that Houston punt return TD which ended up looming large.  (Also shout out to Harbaugh for kicking a field goal with under 2 minutes to go!)
• We weren’t so lucky Saturday night, going 0-2 in the Niners/Packers game.  Too many redzone trips with no points plus too many turnovers equals no (Over 50.5).  The Niners (-9.5) also was a dead bet throughout.  Bad, bad game for me.
• We got back that winning feeling in Detroit (-6) Sunday afternoon.  Ford Field was indeed a madhouse and although Baker and the Bucs battled valiantly, the Lions talent prevailed.
• I vow to you here and now; I will never bet against Patrick Mahomes as a dog in the playoffs ever again.  Josh Allen played borderline flawless, and the Bills (-2.5) had KC right where they wanted them late.  However, on 3rd down as Allen’s ball sailed over the wide-open Diggs on the cross and short of the wide-open Shafir on the post… we knew how this would end.  Mahomes is inevitable (spoiler alert).

With only two games Sunday I’m going to switch up the format of the Top 5.  I will have each game listed with a few bets under each.  Let’s get it!

 

Championship Weekend

AFC Championship – Kansas City Chiefs AT Baltimore Ravens – 3 PM – CBS

Line: Ravens -4 (-110) O/U: 44.5 (-110)

You simply can’t ask for a better matchup to decide who represents the AFC in the Super Bowl.

The defending champion Chiefs and all-time great Patrick Mahomes come into M&T Bank Stadium to face the assumed MVP Lamar Jackson and a Baltimore team with arguably the best overall roster in football.

No matter how you slice this game, the Ravens have the advantage.  The offense relies on the run topping the league with 156.5 yards per game and are 4th in scoring (28.4 ppg).  The Chiefs offensive woes have been well documented, but they still ended up 6th in pass offense and 2nd in the league in sacks allowed.  I’d argue without the greatness of Mahomes, those numbers are wildly different with how the rest of the roster fills out.

On defense, whoa baby are the Ravens LOADED.  They are #1 in scoring defense giving up a paltry 16.5 points per game, #1 in sacks and tied for first in takeaways.  They have a mean, nasty and hard-hitting style led by their linebacking core which is the best in the league by far.  The Chiefs defense has been carrying the load for much of the season coming in at #2 in points slightly behind Baltimore at 17.3 ppg and a tremendous pass defense ranking 4th in the league.

I see this game being an absolute classic.  Baltimore could very well win the game but like I alluded to in the recap above, I will NOT be betting against Mahomes as a dog until he proves me otherwise.  The backdoor cover will always be in play, and I can live with myself a lot better if I lose backing #15 in red.

The Pick: Chiefs (+4 -110)

 

AFC Title Prop Bets

Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD (+125) – Pacheco has been one of the most consistent players in the KC offense.  He has scored in six straight games and the Ravens only susceptible part of their defense is the run game.  No one on Earth runs harder than Pacheco and I fully expect him to be dancing in the endzone Sunday.

Lamar Jackson OVER 63.5 Rushing Yds (-130) – Jackson has been unstoppable on the ground throughout his career but even more so in the playoffs.  In his five postseason games he’s averaged an insane 93.4 rush yds per game and the Chiefs defense is an unimpressive 18th against the run giving up over 113 yards a game.  For the Ravens to win like they want, they need to control the ball and keep Mahomes off the field.  I expect Jackson to ensure that by procuring first downs with his legs throughout.

 

NFC Championship – Detroit Lions AT San Francisco 49ers – 6:30 PM – FOX

Line: 49ers -7 (-115) O/U: 52 (-110)

As a sports handicapper, you are always looking for an edge praying Vegas got something wrong.  This will be unpopular, but the books have this one perfect in my opinion.

I could absolutely see the Niners blowing out the beloved Lions, I could also see a back-and-forth affair where a Dan Campbell decision late leads to an outright win for the Motor City faithful.  My point is this game is very hard to predict.

Detroit has been lethal offensively all year with a tremendous balance of run (5th in the league) and pass (2nd).  One leads to the other as QB Jared Goff was, for my money, the best play-action QB in the league this season.  RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery continue to be an outstanding 1-2 punch and possession receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds and TE Sam LaPorta all make it incredibly difficult to stop this offense in totality.

The Niners defense has had another great year, especially against the run, but they’ve been leaky of late.  I do believe Goff will be able to move the ball in between the hashes on this San Fran defense and put some points on the board.  On offense, the 49ers obviously rely heavily on all world back Christian McCaffrey who I expect to have more than a few highlights in this one.  But I’d argue the most important player is WR Deebo Samuel who is OFF the injury report as of this moment.  Crazy trend alert!

This season, when Samuel starts and finishes the game, the Niners are 12-1 straight up and 10-3 ATS.  When he doesn’t, they are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS.  Another wild one for his career: when Samuel gets even just ONE target, the Niners are 44-13 SU and only 9-10 when he doesn’t.

I’d LOVE to take the over but it’s just so damn high at 52 so I’ll stay away.  The Lions have scored first in each of their last six games and are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.  But I just can’t get there totally with a side, but I do have three props I love in this one for you.

Lean: Lions (+7 +105)

 

NFC Title Prop Bets

Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 75 Rushing + Receiving Yds (-115) – Gibbs has been on an absolute tear of late and presents such an impossible matchup for LBs covering him out of the backfield.  Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson loves to scheme Gibbs into space and watch him sprint.  Look for him to break a couple long runs on stretch plays as well as Goff dump offs that can turn into 20+ yarders at any point.

Christian McCaffrey OVER 85.5 Rush Yds (-130) – Sometimes its just “Don’t think, just shoot” with guys like CMC.  He is such a monster, especially at home, and the Niners feed him constantly.  The Lions run defense, shocking to most, ranks 2nd in the league but McCaffrey is not of this world.  He has 98+ rush yards in each of his last three home games and I think he soars past 100 in this one as well.

Jauan Jennings OVER 17.5 Receiving Yds (-120) – Jennings is an under the radar prop that I absolutely love.  The Lions pass defense is atrocious (27th in the league) and they will have their hands full with the weapons SF has.  I see the safeties putting a lot of emphasis on trailing Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk giving Jennings a couple wide open targets for big gains.  We’re going to hit this one early with a 20-yard reception, I see it in the stars.  Also of note: his teammates call him “Third and Jauan” and that is an ALL-TIME nickname.

Only 180 minutes left of football this season.  Savor every second!

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabil