Super Bowl Sunday - David's Best Bets

It is FINALLY Super Bowl Sunday on the Top 5!

Every week I brought you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend and we've reached the finish line.

The NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers will take on the AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs at the gorgeous Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV.  Strap in for my BEST BETS in what is almost guaranteed to be an absolute classic!

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Playoff Record: 8-4 / Overall: 52-46-4 (53.1%)

Props: 2-3

Championship weekend was a tremendous 7 hours of entertainment that saw both games decided by three points.  The Chiefs (+4) took Baltimore completely out of their game plan as newly crowned 2-time MVP Lamar Jackson abandoned his legs (as well as ALL the RBs) and threw the ball 37 times.  Zay Flowers had crucial back-to-back miscues first with a taunting penalty after a huge reception and shortly after fumbling the ball into the endzone for a touchback.  PS – Both of these rules STINK. 

Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and Travis Kelce will once again play for the Lombardi trophy as they try to be the first back-to-back champions since the 03-04 Patriots.

Over in Santa Clara, the Lions (+7) blew a 17-point lead in truly heartbreaking fashion.  It’s been talked to death by now about head coach Dan Campbell going for and missing two 4th down conversions in key spots.  However, I’d point to him running the ball down on the goal line under 2 minutes and burning a timeout sealed their fate.  The Niners survived for the 2nd consecutive week, at home, as a touchdown favorite. 

Here we are, Super Bowl 58 pitting the best overall team (49ers) vs. the best player on the planet (Patrick Mahomes) yet again.  Feels VERY similar to last year when I had every active bet on the Eagles… Spoiler alert: I won’t be making that same mistake again.

 

SUPER BOWL 58

San Francisco 49ers VS. Kansas City Chiefs – 6:30 PM EST – CBS

Line: 49ers -2 (-105) O/U 47.5 (-110)

Offensive Rankings

49ers (Total: 2nd / Passing: 4th / Rushing: 3rd)

Chiefs (Total: 9th / Passing: 6th / Rushing: 19th)

 

Defensive Rankings

49ers (Total: 8th/ Passing: 14th/ Rushing: 3rd)

Chiefs (Total: 2nd/ Passing: 4th / Rushing: 18th)

 

I tipped my hand up above but let’s be real.  It was always the Chiefs, and it was ALWAYS Patrick Mahomes. 

There is a plethora of reasoning I can and will give you about why I’m taking the defending champions in this game, but it can be broken down quite simply to this:

When I lay my head down Sunday night and tally up my 20+ prop bets, agonize over that missed extra point that “would have won me my block pool”, all while very much regretting that extra slice of pizza I had at the 2-minute warning… I can close my eyes and rest if I bet Patrick Mahomes and lost way easier than if I went the other way.

He’s just tremendous.  Competitive and clutch gene locked on 100.  Patrick Mahomes is simply inevitable.

The Chiefs clearly had a lackluster regular season and if the division we all thought would be great was even average, they may not be where they are today.  However, while the other team donned in red on the opposite sideline has been the best overall unit all season long, I’d argue KC is easily playing the best recently.

A dominant win against the Dolphins, a thrilling win IN Buffalo, and finally a defensive masterclass by Coach Spags and the boys against the best team in the AFC and League MVP in their building 2 weeks ago.  Quite frankly, the champs are cooking.

The Niners, as I said earlier, ARE the best team in football this season and in my opinion are the rightful owners of a 2-point spread favorite.  They have the offensive player of the year who scored a Madden-like 21 TDs this season (and another 4 in the playoffs) in RB Christian McCaffrey.  QB Brock Purdy has not just “game managed” his way to an NFC crown, he went out and took it from the conference with clutch comebacks and thrilling 4th quarter drives with both his arm and legs.  All world athlete WR Deebo Samuel makes the Niners borderline unbeatable statistically.  Finally let us not forget TE George Kittle and WR Brandon Aiyuk who can take the top off any defense in a blink of an eye.

For me though, yes of course its about #15 in red and white like it always is however in this matchup, I point to that Chiefs defense almost more.

This is easily the best defense Reid and Mahomes have had in their dynasty run.  They are 2nd in the league overall and 4th against the pass.  Earlier this year they had a lot of trouble up front in terms of closing the run lanes but have shown improvement in the playoffs, especially against two of the top five rush offenses in football.  Miami ran for a paltry 76 yards in the Wildcard round and the top rush team in the league Ravens didn’t do much better with 81 in the title game.  They have clearly figured something out up front and although no player is better than CMC, I believe Spagnuolo and that front 7 will be up to the task.

McCaffrey is going to get his no doubt, but if they keep his individual gains down and force Purdy to throw over the top against these blanket corners, mistakes will be made by the 2nd year passer. 

When I analyze individual games, I think mostly in terms of game script.  How do I see the game playing out from Quarter 1 to the final horn.  When I break down this matchup, I see KC owning the clock.  No one is better at 3rd down conversions lifetime than Mahomes (and Kelce) and they like nothing better than providing you a slow and painful death down the field.  Insert Isiah Pacheco here.  Boy this kid is incredible.  A touchdown scorer in seven straight games now, I expect him to be a huge reason they’re on the podium at the end of the night.  Making sure the Chiefs are in 3rd and shorts will be massive for Mahomes to work and Pacheco will have to be a big reason why. 

The SF defense has been leaky of late and plays a mostly zone scheme.  You’ll never guess what QB carves up a zone like it’s a walk in the park… #15.  The Niners are going to HAVE to contain and get home from their star studded down lineman because if Mahomes breaks any pocket with his eyes downfield, tongue out for the world to see, he WILL find the open guy.

I could go on and on, but I’m sure you have some buffalo dip to make and a cold beer to crack.  Enjoy the game.

The Pick: Chiefs +2 (-105)

Lean: Under 47.5

 

PROP BETS!

I’m going to give you a bunch of prop bets, 21 (TWENTY-ONE!) to be exact, that I have already placed on the game.  For easy scrolling I’ll break it down between favored bets to mid-size odds and conclude with all the high odd fun ones I’m sprinkling some money on.  Enjoy!

 

Bets from (-135) to (-110)

• (-135) Fred Warner OVER 7.5 Total Tackles + Assists
• (-125) Deebo Samuel OVER 16.5 Rush Yds
• (-125) Longest Field Goal OVER 47.5
• (-120) Harrison Butker OVER 1.5 FGs
• (-120) Rashee Rice OVER 6.5 Receptions
• (-120) Marquez Valdes-Scantling OVER 19.5 Receiving Yds
• (-115) Deebo Samuel OVER 80.5 TOTAL Yds
• (-115) Christian McCaffrey OVER 3.5 Yds on his First Rush
• (-110) Christian McCaffrey Player with the first rush over 10 Yds or more
• (-110) Chiefs to have Most Time of Possession

 

Bets from (+100) to (+250)

• (+100) Justin Watson OVER 1.5 Receptions
• (+125) Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD 1st Half
• (+135) Deebo Samuel Anytime TD
• (+164) Total Players to have a Pass Attempt OVER 2.5
• (+190) Fred Warner Most Tackles + Assists
• (+250) Isiah Pacheco Longest Rush

 

Bets from (+300 and up)

• (+370) San Francisco to Score First and Lose
• (+650) Deebo Samuel Most Total Yds
• (+800) Either Team to Kick a Game-Winning Walk-Off Field Goal at End of Regulation - YES
• (+900) Deebo Samuel Longest Rush
• (+1000) Game to go to Overtime - YES

 

Thank you again to everyone who read the Top 5 this season.  I hope you won some money and had as much fun following along as I did bringing it to you each week. 

 

Enjoy the Super Bowl and as always, Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: davecostabile