MLB Best Bets 3/28/24 - HR Predictor

MLB is back and so are my daily HR bet articles! Last season we finished with over $500 in profit using a $100 unit scale and betting between $10 and $25 on each pick. If you want access to my daily betting cards + our A.I. powered Moneyline Predictor and Total Predictor for every MLB game click here. These tools, as well as our Live Trends page get updated daily to provide you with the best knowledge possible when betting. Let's get into our Opening Day pick...

*odds via FanDuel Sportsbook*

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Alex Bregman +450

We kick off the 2024 MLB season targeting Nestor Cortes, who fell off the map last season after a breakout campaign in 2022. Cortes gave up a ton of fly-balls and hard-hits to right-handed batters last season which translated to a monster .206 ISO allowed. If that remains the same this season, he could run into some trouble against an Astros lineup that owns a .200 ISO as a team against left-handed pitching. The two most feared bats in this lineup happen to come from the left-side -- Alvarez and Tucker -- but that doesn't meant they don't have several righties with pop up and down the lineup. Bregman actually has some of the least pop in the lineup (.177 ISO) but I believe he matches up best here due to his splits against cut fastballs. Cortes relied heavily on his cut fastball last season, using it at a top-10 rate in baseball. Houston has a few guys that smash this pitch, but none more than Bregman. 

I'm expecting there to be some runs scored in this game, and Houston looks like the best team to target due to the amount of righties they're going to send to the dish against Cortes. You could make the case for any RHH in the lineup today, but I'll side with Bregman and his monster splits against cut fastballs. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)