MLB Best Bets 3/29/24 - HR Predictor

MLB is back and so are my daily HR bet articles! Last season we finished with over $500 in profit using a $100 unit scale and betting between $10 and $25 on each pick. If you want access to my daily betting cards + our A.I. powered Moneyline Predictor and Total Predictor for every MLB game click here. These tools, as well as our Live Trends page get updated daily to provide you with the best knowledge possible when betting. Let's get into our Friday pick...

*odds via FanDuel Sportsbook*

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Jake Burger +420

We missed on Opening Day, with Bregman smoking a loud flyout in the first inning and ultimately letting us down. Today I'm looking at the Miami Marlins and Jake Burger against Martin Perez. Perez is a solid real-life pitcher that relies on ground balls to get outs. He doesn't have huge strike out numbers, and he allows plenty of hard-hit balls to both sides of the plate. His numbers fall off a cliff, however, against right-handed hitters. Given that he's so good at getting ground outs, we need to target guys that get the ball up in the air against him. 17 of the 21 homeruns he allowed in 2023 came to right-handed batters, and that's why I'm focused on Jake Burger. Burger is the best right-handed power bat on the Marlins with Jorge Soler out of town. He has the highest ISO (.331) and hard-hit rate (66%). Perez is also primarily a sinker ball pitcher. It's his most-used pitch, while Burger excels in the split. During the 2023 season, he posted a monster .400 ISO against sinkers -- the highest mark on the Marlins by far. 

Miami's team total is approaching 5 runs tonight, and Burger is my best bet for a power source on Friday night. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)