MLB Best Bets 4/5/24 - HR Predictor

MLB is back and so are my daily HR bet articles! Last season we finished with over $500 in profit using a $100 unit scale and betting between $10 and $25 on each pick. If you want access to my daily betting cards + our A.I. powered Moneyline Predictor and Total Predictor for every MLB game click here. These tools, as well as our Live Trends page get updated daily to provide you with the best knowledge possible when betting. Let's get into our Friday pick...

*odds via FanDuel Sportsbook*

Nelson Velazquez +480

I wrote up a different Royal in my DFS article today, but I think there is tremendous value on multiple Royals to hit homeruns tonight. I'm a believer that Erick Fedde can be a good MLB pitcher after he dominated the KBO last season. That being said, he will still allow some homeruns and targeting guys that can get the ball up in the air to counteract his ground-ball rate is my preferred method. KC's offense has been hot to start the season, including Velazquez who has already homered twice. He had the highest fly-ball rate on the team last season vs RHP -- which fits the mold of what I'm looking to target in this match-up. He also destroyed sinkers last season -- posting a .429 ISO and 58% hard-hit rate against the pitch. Fedde offered his sinker as his most-used pitch in his White Sox debut. 

KC is favored in this game for a reason, and with a 5 run team total I think we can expect some runs to be scored here. They have a ton of guys putting the barrel on the ball to start the season -- and Velazquez is my favorite option to go yard on Friday night.