MLB Best Bets 4/9/24 - HR Predictor

MLB is back and so are my daily HR bet articles! Last season we finished with over $500 in profit using a $100 unit scale and betting between $10 and $25 on each pick. If you want access to my daily betting cards + our A.I. powered Moneyline Predictor and Total Predictor for every MLB game click here. These tools, as well as our Live Trends page get updated daily to provide you with the best knowledge possible when betting. Let's get into our Dinger Tuesday pick...

*odds via FanDuel Sportsbook*

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Marcus Semien +360 & Wyatt Langford +500

I'm targeting a pair of Rangers tonight against Alex Wood, in what is one of the best match-ups on the slate for right-handed power. Wood is a serviceable major league arm, but his numbers drop-off significantly against right-handed hitters. On top of every metric dipping vs righties -- he allowed 8 HR's to right-handed hitters last season compared to just one vs LHH. For his career, he's allowed 106 to righties in comparison to 15 vs lefties. 

Semien has always excelled against left-handed pitching. Last season, he posted a solid .363 wOBA and 45% hard-contact rate in the split. More importantly, he's basically the best hitter on the Rangers against sinkers, which is Wood's most-used pitch. In 2023, he ranked top-overall on the team with a .273 ISO vs left-handed sinkers. He's also faired well against Wood in his career PA's against him. 

As for Langford, I'm willing to buy into elite talent and believe Langford has a strong chance for his first big-league homer tonight. It feels like this is due to happen any day now, and even if he doesn't get there vs Wood -- the A's have arguably the worst BP in baseball backing him up. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)