MLB Best Bets 4/12/24 - HR Predictor

MLB is back and so are my daily HR bet articles! Last season we finished with over $500 in profit using a $100 unit scale and betting between $10 and $25 on each pick. If you want access to my daily betting cards + our A.I. powered Moneyline Predictor and Total Predictor for every MLB game click here. These tools, as well as our Live Trends page get updated daily to provide you with the best knowledge possible when betting. Let's get into our Dinger Friday's pick...

*odds via FanDuel Sportsbook*

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Will Benson +360 

This is one of my favorite games to target for offense on the Friday slate, with good hitting weather for this time of year and winds blowing out to center. Chris Flexen has only allowed one HR this season, but he's allowing a career high average exit velocity. He's also allowing over 43% hard-hits to both sides of the plate, and has relied on getting ground balls. Given that fact, we want to target guys that hit the ball up in the air against him and obviously have good power numbers. Benson fits that mold, and has been in great form this season leading the Reds in barrels/PA at 8.5%. He also matches up well against Flexen's pitch mix, and his high usage of the fourseam fastball. He throws his fourseam over 40% of the time -- a pitch that Benson owns a monster .262 ISO against since the start of last season. 

I'm very bullish on a breakout season from Benson, and he hasn't disappointed in the early goings. Strikeouts are Benson's achilles heel, but given that Flexen is generating under 7% swinging strikes I'm not very worried about in this spot. I like the offenses on both sides of this game, but Benson is who I'm backing to go yard. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)