Sam's Par 5 - PGA Bets
Tournament: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge
All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook
Welcome to the Arnold Palmer Invitational and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest “bang for your buck” sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.
It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn’t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!
Brief Honda Classic Recap: Bang! 2nd winner in 3 weeks as Sungjae gets what I believe is a win that was a long time coming with a great Sunday round to outlast a charging Mackenzie Hughes as well as Tommy Fleetwood. Feels good to be up a ton as we now have some safety for several weeks as we look to continue the hot streak but can also take some volatility. Further, Harris English snuck into the Top 20 for us at 3/1 and Dufner was close… a bad Sunday kept him out of there and Byeong Hun An had a fantastic Friday-Sunday to actually backdoor a Top 5 and beat Shane Lowry handedly. Still, a positive +31-unit week as we move to up well over 50 units for the year!
Honda Classic: +31 Units
YTD: +53.8 Units
The above number is, as noted above, per DK Sportsbook but I would recommend line shopping as I found an 80/1 and there are many 66/1 or 70/1 numbers out there. Ancer will be popular in the DFS world this week and for good reason as he’s gained on SG: Approach in his last 5 measure events, SG: Off-The-Tee in his last 3 events and has finishes of 2nd/43rd/12th in his last 3 starts. You need to have a stellar SG: OTT game to compete here, which Ancer ranks Top 20 in the field, and he’s a different player then he was when he MC last year; he’s now 29th in the world and full of confidence. Like him here.
Homa has really been on a tear his last several tournaments with a 5th at the Genesis (major-like field), 14th, 6th, and 9th in his last 4 starts. The keys to this course are SG: Off-The-Tee, where Homa ranks 21st in the field, approaches from 200+, where Homa ranks 4th in his last 50 rounds (c/o of FantasyNational.com). He ranks 14th in Birdies or Better Gained, and Top 30 in both overall SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green so I love this number for Homa to continue his hot form and capture his 2nd win on TOUR.
Not necessarily a Champ fan by any means as I feel he’s overrated, but on a course where I’ve said now twice above how important SG: OTT, Champ ranks #1 in the field. He also ranks 9th in BoB Gained, 7th in Opportunities Gained (shots that hit the green and are <15 feet from the pin) and is Top 25 in SG: T2G. I’ve seen tournaments before, albeit not as strong, where Champ is a 30/1 or less outright to win so I think we’re getting value here with someone who if they putt well can easily make a run.
McNealy is still quite new to the TOUR but has come in with a bang as he’s made 11 straight cuts, which includes 3 Top 15s or better in 3 of his last 4, one of which was an 11th at the very tough PGA National last week. He ranks 19th in the field in SG: T2G, 12th in Opps. Gained, 33rd in SG: OTT, and 32nd in SG: APP/ Approaches from 200+ yards. With a smaller field I think like Champ we’re getting great value here.
DK Sportsbook is giving great value here with the +105 and with Poulter’s outstanding course history here I’ll take that all day. He has made every cut at Bay Hill since 2009 and with the expected windy conditions this weekend, I expect him to handle those better than Na. Neither player is a very long hitter, but Poulter has the advantage in both Par 4 and Par 5 scoring as well as approaches from 200+.