Brad's Best Bets - PGA Tour - Arnold Palmer Invitational
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Brad's Best Bets - PGA Tour - Arnold Palmer Invitational

Brad Thomas

Arnold Palmer Invitational

March 5-8, 2020

Bay Hill Golf Course

Total Purse: $9,300,000

2019 Winner: Francesco Molinari (-12)  

2020 PGA Betting Record: 8-7 (+7 units)


Tommy Fleetwood to finish in the Top 20 (-150) bet 1.5 units


Oh Tommy, last weekend was such a heartbreaker for you and all your backers. So close to pulling it off. Your lead was squandered then you found yourself in the middle of the fairway with a shot into the par 5 in two. Then, splash, you found the water. After last weekend’s heartbreak, I believe many people will bet him to win outright. Fair, but I do think his desire to quickly right his wrong will hinder his ability to finish atop of the leaderboard. That does not mean I think he will play poorly. In fact, I believe he will play very well. Well enough to finish in the Top 20, hence the -150 price tag for the bet. If it weren’t for a 76 in round three last year, Fleetwood might have found himself atop the leaderboard and in the winner’s circle. He is also currently 3 for 5 in Top 20 finishes. Take Fleetwood to finish in the Top 20 with confidence.


Rory McIlroy to finish Top 5 (+125) bet 1 unit


If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it. That applies to betting Rory McIlroy to finish Top 5 week in and week out. The world’s #1 ranked golfer has once again been playing lights out this season. I mean, it’s no surprise betting Rory to finish Top 5 has been so profitable. Rory has played in 5 events this season and finished in the Top 5 in all 5. That is a perfect 5 for 5 in betting Rory Top 5. Rory is playing well and ranks highly in several categories. He is number 3 in driving distance and 7th off the tee. He’s 1st not only from tee-to-green but also 1st in strokes gained over all. I wouldn’t mind placing a small wager on Rory to win it all, he generally plays excellent at Bay Hill.


Rickie Fowler to finish Top 10 (+350) bet 1 unit


Call me crazy or call me a fool. I will be the one proudly backing Rickie at the API this weekend. Almost everything tells you to stay away from this bet. So, it is very understandable if you fade my Rickie Fowler Top 10 finish bet. I mean, he has missed two cuts out of his last three starts. And he only has two Top 10 finishes in six tournaments this season. But if Fowler can get off to a solid start on Thursday, he will find himself competitive all weekend. In his last three starts he has post scores over par in the opening round, then proceeded to either miss the cut or finish outside the Top 20. But the other two rounds he started the tournament off under par he finished inside the Top 10. We need Rickie to channel the beast we know he can and finish in the Top 10.


Marc Leishman to finish Top 20 (+180) bet 1 unit

Marc Leishman to finish Top 5 (+750) bet 1 unit

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