Gotham Stakes Preview and Analysis
Semi-Super Saturday's first Kentucky Derby prep race is the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct in New York. Slated to go off at 5:42 pm, we will be treated with a large field of eleven 3-year-olds going a mile. This race awards points of 50-20-10-5 to the 1st through 4th place finishers. With the lowest M/L odds set at 3/1, 4/1, and 5/1, it seems we could have some nice prices if the public can't settle on a favorite.
This group of horses all come in here without any Derby points, except Informative, who finished 4th in the Remsen here at Aqueduct to pick up a point. At first glance, Celtic Striker (#1) is not nearly fast enough to be the leader type he normally is. Even with the rail draw, he will probably beat out of the gate, settle midpack and have little to no shot to shine in this race. If Untitled (#10) gets a good start, I expect him to shoot over to get the lead. Mischevious Alex (#6) had a perfect post draw and sets up to possibly hustle to the front. Alex has been raced more than most in this race. In 6 races, he has won 3 and hit the board in 2 others. On the longshot side of things, Attachment Rate (#4) has some unusual speed numbers which distort the whole picture. As a stalker/midpack type racer with great late speed and Luis Saez on the mount, Attachment Rate could spring an upset.
Early Lean:I think this is Mischevious Alex race to lose. With the best starting gate position and some of the top early speed, if he handles his business, he will be collecting 50 derby points. Untitled has lost to Mischievous Alex once before, so let's call this a revenge race. It would be tough, but I could see a situation where Untitled gets the lead and is able to go the distance. If those 2 duel it out in speed, I expect Attachment Rate and War Stopper to pick up the pieces.
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