Tampa Bay Derby 2020 Preview and Analysis

Tampa Bay Downs will be hosting the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday after 5:30 pm. As per usual at Tampa, you can expect a huge field in this Kentucky Derby Prep. 12 horses will take their shot at the top prize of 50 points for first place. 2nd - 4th with also receive points in the amounts of 20 - 10 - 5. The standout in this field is Sole Volante receiving the M/L odds of 2/1. However, he isn't alone, as the oddsmaker has pinned this as a 2 horse race with Chance It landing at 5/2.

• 1. Texas Swing 12/1 J. Castellano Speed 0 Points
• 2. Spa City 10/1 D. Centeno Midpack 0 Points
• 3. Relentless Dancer 12/1 A. Gallardo Speed 1 Point
• 4. Chance It 5/2 P. Lopez Stalker 0 Points
• 5. Market Analysis 8/1 J. Velazquez Speed 0 Points
• 6. Mo Mosa 30/1 P. Morales Leader 0 Points
• 7. Sole Volante 2/1 F. Geroux Backpack 10 Points
• 8. Letmeno 12/1 C. Landeros Closer 1 Point
• 9. Unrighteous 20/1 J. Bravo Midpack 0 Points
• 10. Bye Bye Melvin 20/1 J. Leparoux Midpack 0 Points
• 11. King Guillermo 15/1 S. Camacho Midpack 0 Points
• 12. Tons of Gold 30/1 A. Suarez Closer 0 Points

Sole Volante is the big man on campus coming into this race with 10 points. Riding the high of beating a 1/5 favorite in Independence Hall, this race will serve as a reality check. Not so long ago, Chance It had a victory over a third placing Sole Volante. Chance It was scheduled to run last week when a poor post position was drawn, so his trainer opted to roll the dice and try his luck in this spot. For what it's worth, 2 weeks ago I did not have Sole Volante in my top 10 (nor did I have Chance It).

Early Lean:This is a tough race. Chance It beat Sole Volante (and As Seen on TV) one start back. As Seen on Tv was a pitiful 3rd about 10 lengths behind the winner. I bring this up because that's me asking "who did Chance It beat?" Sole Volante beat Independence Hall but rewatching that race, it was just a perfect setup. Can Sole Volante win without blazing speed upfront? It's possible, but at 2/1 I will be looking elsewhere. Market Analysis at 8/1 is so juicy for a 1 for 1 horse that looks good but will have to worry about this larger field and distance. Just for added fun, Texas Swing was bred for distance and won a 9F contest while losing a 6F contest before that. But I actually sort of like Spa City in this spot...

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