Brad's Best Bets - Bundesliga 06/05/2020
This weekend’s match up is a battle between two teams wishing they could rewind and start the season over. Frankfurt vs Mainz 05 is an interesting match that involves two of the leagues worst defensive teams. In fact, Mainz is tied with Werder Bremen for the most points against at 62 this season, and they seemingly have no problem conceding goals. Their defensive lines often get pulled too close to the midfield allowing the opposition to score easily. Although Mainz did a decent job at keeping Hoffenheim out of the back of the net, there is still room for us to find value in goal totals. Struggling Mainz finds themselves just one point clear of the third relegation spot and winless in their previous five matches. The first bet we will attack is Frankfurt over 1.5 goals. Since the restart Frankfurt has scored at least 2 goals in all but one game, a game where they were defeated by 4th placed Gladbach. I fully expect Frankfurt to come out firing as they look to make it three victories in a row. A feat that they have yet to accomplish this season. This coupled with the fact that Mainz is fighting for their place in Bundesliga next season, we should see a rather open game. Mainz has Werder knocking on their doorstep and will do everything in their power to come away from this game with more than one point. The head to head trends for this match up tells a different story than the form each team is in leading up to this match. Frankfurt have not defeated Mainz in their last three matches. But, the first thing you must know about soccer, is you are only as good as you are playing. Mainz is playing awful and can’t seem to score. Where Frankfurt might have hit their stride and are scoring at will. I could see this game ending 2-1 or 2-0 in favor of Frankfurt, so in addition to the 2 unit bet on Frankfurt’s team total, I will be placing 1 unit on Frankfurt -0.5.
A winning strategy that I’m sure a lot of successful soccer handicappers take is to look for matchups where you are getting positive moneyline value on the good team playing the bad. Many people will say it’s a trap that the bookmakers set to lurer novice bettors into placing losing bets. But the math states otherwise. If you take 16 winning teams and have them all play each other, the better team only wins about 28% of the time. If you change the variance to include the all teams, and every team completes is a game against each other you will notice the better team (team with the better record) will win 55 – 60%. How does this work? Soccer and generally hockey are low scoring sports. In low scoring affairs every opportunity matters. Every number moving forward will be an approximation. Let’s say Team A has a 60% chance of scoring when they have created a chance against the opposition. Since the opposition is on the defense and will be reliant on their reaction response to the oppositions attack, they have a marginally less chance to stop the goal. Let’s say 55-58%. Now take Team B who is not as talented as Team A but still has created an attack on goal, they have a 55% chance to score where and Team A has a marginally worse chance to stop them. If the better team misses their opportunity to convert while the worse team scores, now the better team is facing an uphill battle to not only convert one of the 60% chances, but two, while still attempting to keep the other team out of the net. If the better of the two teams who is down by one needs to score twice, their chances are cut in half. But since they are also defending the oppositions attack, they are cut in half again. Mathematically giving them a 15.5% chance of scoring twice without conceding a goal.
With that being said, yes, Hoffenheim can go out there and lose the game. Bookmakers will be happy and those who backed Hoff will be upset. But mathematically if you take the good team with positive moneyline odds vs the bad team, you will still win 55%. Without having to pay juice you will come out positive. Lucky for Hoffenheim backers, Dusseldorf sit in the last relegation spot. They are bad. Where as Hoffenheim is trying to build on their two-game winning streak. I am taking Hoffenheim ML for 2 units.