Sam's Par 5 - PGA Bets
Course: Harbour Town GL
All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook
Welcome to the RBC Heritage and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest “bang for your buck” sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.
It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn’t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!
Recap: Returns next week
YTD: +60.3 Units
Has DJ looked very strong at the gimmick matchup a few weeks ago or last week? No. This is a bet on the long term talent and just a crazy number to see when last year, albeit a weaker field and he was in much better form, I think DJ opened at something like 5/1 to win… putting is extremely variant as it is and it feels like DJ just has not putted remotely well in a very long time (hasn’t gained more than 2 strokes since Tournament of Champions in January and before that was last year’s PGA Championship); again, this is a bet on long-term form and the fact that we probably won’t see odds this high again
I feel like I’ve seen a lot of people get on the Kisner train this week and it makes a ton of sense… he showed some rust last week but still gained over 1 stroke on APP and 5.4 strokes T2G. Interestingly, he lost strokes putting for the first time since January and when it comes to Pete Dye courses, Kisner is one of the best. In his last 6 appearances at Harbour Town, Kisner has made all 6 cuts and had finishes of 11th/7th/2nd. He has come runner up at the PLAYERS (Pete Dye) and excels in 2 of the key stats this week: Fairways Gained (17th in the field) and Scrambling (10th in the field).
Longer shot, but I thought Hadwin looked solid last week and has the course fit that I’m looking for at a Pete Dye track: hits fairways, solid short game, and excels from that 125-175 range on approaches. He gained 2.6 on APP last week but didn’t finish high on the leaderboard due to a few doubles; however, I like to see that he gained in ball striking 3 of 4 rounds combined with the fact that he’s won at one of the comp courses I’m using this week, Copperhead (Valspar Championship). If Hadwin can capture a hot putter, he could find himself in contention come Sunday.
I don’t like going against form normally, but since there isn’t much to speak of, I think this is a solid price for a Top 20 from a guy who used to be decently consistent. Moore isn’t a long hitter but hits a ton of fairways (10th in the field), is solid on approaches from 125-175 (30th in the field) and is my 5th ranked player in Strokes Gained on Pete Dye Courses. He has had some success at Valspar with 2 Top 5s and finished 18th here at the Heritage 2 years ago. If he putts well, I think a Top 20 is fully in the cards.
Varner looked like a stud the first few days before falling short on the weekend, in which he gained 0.4 strokes on APP on Saturday and 0.5 strokes on Sunday after gaining over 5 the first 2 days. Further, he showed a weak short game on the weekend which I think will hurt him here as you are forced to scramble a lot with the small greens. I think Hadwin beats out Varner in putting ability on top of the fact that Varner’s worst putting surface by far is Bermuda. Both players rank near the same in Fairways Gained and Approach play but with Hadwin taking the clear edge in Scrambling and Pete Dye history, I’ll take him here to beat Varner in the full tournament matchup.