Belmont Stakes - Ricky and Caleb's Picks

Ricky’s Thoughts

Caleb’s Thoughts

1. Tap It to Win – Late bloomer and was not in the conversation until beating Mysic Guide in a 1 1/16 mile race earlier this month. Would be silly to leave off of exotics but I don’t think this is the race he wins.

1. Tap It to Win – Improved a ton in his 3-year-old season, posting big back to back wins. However, needs to further improve to compete here, and on short rest it might be more likely he regresses a bit off of those top efforts. Should be forwardly placed and hit the board.

2. Sole Volante – Having only 10 days of rest from his last start makes it interesting to see if his legs are tired. By far the classiest option after the favorite, but I can’t see this horse winning.  Put him down for no better than 2nd.

2. Sole Volante – Raced just 10 days ago in a race that was supposed to be a workout, but he won that race easily in hand against a few tough foes. Biggest obstacle will be a lack of pace to set up his closing kick, but very likely to round out exotics.

3. Max Player – I have a slight interest in this horse as maybe a dark horse to steal the show at 15-1 odds. His last race was Feb 1st and was able to win by over 3 lengths at this distance.  Can he win? Yes. Will he? Probably not.  But having last years Belmont winner helps and I’ll take a shot on him.

3. Max Player – Ran a strong race in the Withers, but that race has come back rather weak, and he now has to overcome a lengthy layoff. Linda Rice has been cold to start the meet, and I think hitting the board at all would be considered a win for these connections.

4. Modernist – Too slow for my liking.  Even if our top horses end up burning, there’s others on this list I’d rather use.  He has won at this distance, but I’ll be passing on him.

4. Modernist – Agreed with Ricky, horse appears too slow. He caught a favorable bias in his Risen Star win, and the Louisiana Derby didn’t have the strongest field this year.

5. Farmington Road – If this race was still a mile and a half, I would consider this horse.  Unfortunately his last few starts have too much left to be desired and his stablemate (Dr Post) seems to be in a better spot.  I won’t be swindled into spending money including him on my tickets.

5. Farmington Road – Stone cold closer lacks any tactical speed at all in a race that has a projected mild pace at best. Horse tries hard, but think he’ll be left with too much to do late. Could clunk up for third late, but get the feeling he takes some money and other closers entice more.

6. Fore Left – Simply cannot trust this horse to go the distance. This is probably one of those horses that end up 99-1 at the start of the race. Avoiding.

6. Fore Left – Doug O’Neill and Reddam Racing aren’t shy about spotting their horses ambitiously, but unless the track comes up with a wicked speed bias it would be a massive upset to see this one hit the board at all.

7. Jungle Runner – I’m not sure why connections decided to enter this horse last week.  8th in the Arkansas Derby last month, I can’t find a logical reason to use this horse on tickets.

7. Jungle Runner – Horse has no business being in this race, and it would be a surprise if he beats anyone at all other than Fore Left. Toss.

8. Tiz the Law – Your morning line favorite. Hes 4 for 5 and only issue was in the slop where he still came third. If you are looking to beat this horse, it will be tough. Sometimes you have to eat the chalk.

8. Tiz the Law – As much as I hate accepting short priced favorites, this one seems very tough to beat in this spot. He is significantly faster than most of these, and he would need to regress and have others improve in order to lose. The Florida Derby runners-up did not come back to run well next out, so perhaps he wasn’t beating a true G1 field that day, but this isn’t the strongest bunch either. Will be awful tough to beat if he runs his normal race. The pick.

9. Dr Post – I love a stalking horse on Belmont day.  I have been drawn to this horse and think he could offer some exotic play. Would be a huge class jump to win on Saturday, but you cant count Irad Ortiz out of any race.

9. Dr Post – I completely agree with Ricky that this horse is very interesting. If you check my “Belmont Stakes Trip Notes” article you’ll see this horse had a rough trip last out and won anyway. I think I need more than the 5/1 morning line, but this one is lightly raced with every right to improve today.

10. Pneumatic – This is a horse that continues to get better and steps up in class after every race. Would be a shock to see this horse win but I fully expect the horse to be around for exotics.

10. Pneumatic – I liked Pneumatic a lot in the Matt Winn, but he disappointed that day, running a tired 3rd despite having a better trip than the horses who beat him. Seems like a talented horse, but I think I’ll let him beat me in this spot.